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CONDITION SUSPICION.............. Monday's 3 PM weekly crop condition report had no surprises. Eastern grain belt and Western grain belt states declined and these are our key producing areas. Corn condition was 62% in good to excellent condition unchanged from the week prior, but our biggest producing states all dropped. Illinois 53% good to excellent down 6% from the week prior, Indiana 41% down 5, Iowa 75% down 5 and Nebraska 78% down 2%. This has been the July pattern and looks to have next Thursday's August 11 USDA crop report feared to come in lower on yields and production versus last months report. On July 5. Illinois was 64% good to excellent, Indiana 58%, Iowa 82% and Nebraska 85%. States that appear too high and should yet decline are, Tennessee 78% down 3 from last week, Kentucky 66% down 6 and Minnesota 74%. Regardless of Monday's collective 62% good to excellent condition, the trade believes it's lower and will trade collectively as if it is, by buying dips and supporting prices into next weeks crop report. 83% of the crop is silking. For those who don't farm silking stage refers to the silky texture hairs on the tip of each ear and each silk strand represents one kernel on the ear. Soybean condition came in at 60% good to excellent condition down 2% from the week prior and our lowest rating yet. But, were 34% in the pot setting stage so it's the next 20 days that will make or break yields based on weather. Beans like corn saw five key producing states declined. Illinois 58% good to excellent down 2%, Indiana 44% down 3, Iowa 76% down 4 , Nebraska 75% down 2 and Missouri 47% down 5. Illinois is 45% in pod setting and Indiana 50% and continue to see hot and dry conditions. On July 5 Indiana was 57% good to excellent, Iowa 79%, Nebraska 82%, Ohio 61% and Missouri 65% all lower to date. This like corn, should have traders fearing a cut in yields and production on next weeks report but that's questionable to some as yields can jump measurably in August when pods are set and the USDA may wait until the September report to make any adjustments. But like always funds trade fear before fact. Spring wheat condition came in at 70% good to excellent condition, versus 74% last week. Cuts came in Montana 53% down 8, Washington 74% down 10 and Idaho 86% down 4 but North Dakota was a surprise at 78%, up 1. Just can't be, considering its foul weather and 78% puts it only 4% under last years great crop. sees the 6 to 14 day Outlook as above normal temperatures to high heat in the southern Delta with the Eastern grain belt Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with normal temperatures. The Western grain belt of Iowa, Nebraska and upper planes of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin as normal temperatures. The 6 to 14 day Outlook for rain totals starting Sunday, August 7 to the 15th sees slightly above normal rainfall from Nebraska east to Ohio and normal precipitation in parts of central Illinois and Indiana and southern Illinois and Indiana but drier in the southern Delta. If I generalize the overall pattern we look to see 30% of the corn and bean belt with with heat and light rain while the remainder warmer than normal but chances of timely rain. This overall pattern through midmonth favors beans over corn but it still comes down to what ever the next days weather report as to what it add or subtracts from the near to long-term . Technicals read like this. December corn support is 6.64. Resistance 6.96. A close over 6.96 sets up 7.04 then 7.22 as next resistance. Buy the breaks. November beans support is 13.55 today Tuesday then 13.35. Resistance is 14.10. September wheat support lies at 6.60 then 6.25. Resistance is 7.16. Long-term thinking should be to be long into the August 11 USDA crop report.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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