GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold prices echo externally-inspired US Dollar price swings
- Crude oil price rally fizzles as Saudi exports hit one-year high
- RBA may indirectly influence gold as oil eyes EIA, API data
Gold prices declined as the US Dollar returned to the offensive , sapping the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal. The greenback rose to the highest level in 13 months against an average of its major counterparts. Meanwhile, a sentiment-driven rally in crude oil prices was aborted as reports of swelling Saudi exports crossed the wires .
RBA IMPACT MAY ECHO IN GOLD PRICES, OIL EYES EIA AND API DATA
Looking ahead, gold prices may continue to reflect externally-driven US Dollar volatility. A lull in top-tier economic news flow might see the benchmark currency reflecting the knock-on effects of price swings in some of its key crosses. Yesterday, that was GBP/USD . Today it might be AUD/USD if that pair turns volatile following the RBA monetary policy announcement .
As for crude, it will size up the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report as well as the weekly inventory flow statistics from API . The former will help gauge the extent to which swelling US output can offset reduced supply from Iran, where sanctions are being re-imposed as of today. The latter will be judged against expectations for a 1.79 million barrel outflow to be reported in official DOE figures on Wednesday.
Learn what other traders' gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend !
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices recoiled from trend line resistance, sinking back toward the 17-month low set last week. A move below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1197.94 sees the next downside barrier at 1186.42, the 50% level. Alternatively, a daily close above trend resistance - now at 1212.14 - initially targets former support at 1236.66.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices remain locked in a range above trend support set from early February. From here, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 70.99 targets the 38.2% level at 73.49. Alternatively, a breach below the outer layer of trend support - now at 66.77 - exposes the 63.96-64.26 area.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here's the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from IG .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.