The Future of Oil is in Doubt
The oil market is currently caught between two competing views. On one side are those who think that oil will continue its century long boom and bust cycle, feeling that is bound to rise again. Others think that cycle has finally been broken and that oil will stay low and range bound for a long time. The argument of the latter is that shale oil has finally made the market competitive, meaning that supply can efficiently rise with demand, keeping prices stable, something that has never really happened in the oil business.
FINSUM : We think the debate over the competitiveness of supply is secondary to what we view as a false assumption of demand growth. Total oil demand peaked over a decade ago in the US and Europe. Emerging markets will likely follow the same pattern, so why is the world expecting big demand growth (especially with renewables growing quickly)?