Fundamental Oil Report (2011-12-20)

News Oil edging up amid rising fears over its supplies
Analysis Crude oil consolidates around the opening levels as mixed factors that affect it, which keep crude hovering without defining a direction, after it rose yesterday on concerns over the world oil supply as more sanctions on Iran is a possibility. Oil is facing a lot of mixed factors that affect it, which keeps it in opening levels, where fears and concerns on the Iranian oil supply is driving crude to the upside, but fears over the future of Europe is adding negative pressures on crude weighing it down. Crude oil opened the session at $94.23 and reached a low of $94.21 where it rose to reach so far a high of $94.94, and it is currently trading around $94.90. As we know, fears remain evident over the outlook for Europe, as the deepening crisis are driving borrowing costs up, and spreading fears in the continent, where the picture for the future of the continent is getting darker at the end of the year, and amid moves from rating agencies that hit the sentiment. Yesterday, Euro zone ministers agreed to boost the IMF's resources by 150 billion euros to fight the debt crisis and won support for more money from EU allies, but it was unclear if the bloc would reach its 200 billion euro target as UK refused to participate in this support plan. This move by Euro zone members is considered encouraging as it may urge other major economies around the world to participate in supporting the region through the IMF, as EU members are doing all what they can do. On the other hand, not just the Iranian oil is under threat and pushes crude to the upside, where the risk of oil supply in Kazakhstan is under threat as well, as oil workers protested for a third day in the central Asian oil producer, which may curb the oil supply from the country. Iran said its crude oil production has dropped due to lack of investment in its oil fields as it faces the toughest sanctions over its nuclear program. Nonetheless, the death of the North Korean leader has raised tensions in Asia as the future of the country remained dark, but this just for several days and the situation will get better, but this drove the US dollar to the upside as a safe haven. All in all, volatility will remain evident amid high rated uncertainty as fears in Europe is increasing and the future of the crisis remain dark, and investors are worried at the end of the year and looking for any positive data that may indicate a brighter future.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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