Fundamental Oil Report (2011-11-28)

News Crude oil rose significantly at the beginning of this week
Analysis Crude oil soared today to begin the week with high levels after it seen some kind of decline last week, as European leaders are willing to implement more actions and take more measures to stem the deepening debt crisis, and less supply from middle east may occur amid unrest there and sanctions on Syria, where unclear picture for the Iranian oil. Arab league officials have imposed economic sanctions on Syria with Violence and roughness are the slogan of Syrian forces, which forced Arabs to impose these sanction, which is threatening the oil supply in Syria, where the Iranian supply future remain uncertain. Crude soared significantly today to reach so far high of $99.88 after it opened the session at $97.59 which is the lowest level it recorded today, and it is currently trading positively around $99.70, and it may continue this upside recovery if it breached the $100 level. Investors are optimistic at the beginning of the week looking for more measures that Europeans may take in order to stem the debt crisis, and measures to reorder the treaties in Europe, and organize the policies in the continent, which will make the European leaders more capable of doing something about the crisis. Hopes are pushing commodities to the upside despite the uncertainty that intensified last week, but with rumors that the IMF would support Italy with almost 600 billion Euros which were denied by both the IMF and Italian officials, as Italian debt has rose significantly with high borrowing costs that reached to dangerous levels that urged Portugal, Greece and Ireland to call for bailouts. Also in Europe, several reports said that European leaders have finally found decided how to leverage the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and would put the headlines on how to intervene in markets and supporting the European nations, as tomorrow the finance ministers had arranged a meeting to discuss these topics. All what we see in Europe is hope but with no serious actions so far, and optimism is obvious in markets due to these hopes, but what would really happen in the coming months nobody knows, where Moody's hinted yesterday that all EU members' ratings are under pressure, and would be downgraded if the crisis continued to deepen and banking sector as well, and this move is preceded by S&P's move last week. And in U.S., the black Friday showed positive signs with more spending from consumers, as retailers reported high sales in thanksgiving holiday on Friday, which indicated a better spending economic cycle and stronger economy. And with a weakening dollar, crude is benefitting to reach so high levels and may break the $100 barrier, as it is hovering below this level, taking into account positive factors that pushed it to the upside. Volatility may appear on crude trading ahead of the EU finance minister meeting tomorrow which is expected to be effective and have its impact on the crisis, and to show more acts that leader would take soon.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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