- The FTSE 100 breaking critical support…
- Which is triggering a familiar technical formation
- Trading bias upon confirmed will remain down, but 'Brexit' headlines will require to stay nimble
The FTSE 100 is skating on thin ice with the 'Brexit' vote growing closer and global risk trends generally weakening. On Thursday, when we last discussed UK stocks the benchmark index was trading about 170 handles higher and felt on a break of the 6/1 low at 6149 it would lead to the FTSE sinking into a substantial support area in the 6050/80 vicinity. It's early, but so far this morning the market is accelerating below this critical area.
Similarly, to how we noted a head-and-shoulders formation in the DAX yesterday , the FTSE, with a varying twist, has fully formed and attempting to break down out of its own H&S pattern. We were slow to note these developments as we wanted to wait for confirming price action. Often times these patterns arrive near completion, but never actually provide a confirmation break, and thus no 'official' signal. The DAX has already confirmed (CAC, too), the FTSE you're up next.
The only hesitation is the unpredictability of news-flow leading up to the vote and then obviously the vote itself, which by then it would be wise to stand aside with no position at all. Polls are skewing more in favor of a 'Brexit', however, odds based on various betting platforms are still pointing to 'Bremain'. So who knows, this pre-vote hoopla isn't an exact science. Stocks are being run by uncertainty. With that said, we will keep an eye on the news-flow, but from a pure technical standpoint the path of least resistance is lower at this time.
The projected target based on the height of the H&S formation is about 380 points lower, or ~5660. At that point, the February lows would come into focus beneath 5500.
FTSE (UK100) Daily
The approach we will take on this end: Upon a confirmation break as long as price action in the short-run continues to act bearish in accordance with the broader view our trading bias will be to short rallies and/or other bearish configurations (i.e. - bear flags, triangles, channels, etc.)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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