Forex news for US trading on June 3, 2016.
- Forex Technical Trading Video: A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD
- Can't keep the EURUSD down...
- US stocks close lower but well off the lows
- Forex live traders survey - Part 3: What is important to your trading/Where do you need improvement
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Little change in positions
- Doubleline Capital's Gundlach calls June Fed hike an "impossibility" - Live Squawk
- US Crude oil futures settle at $48.62/BBL, down 0.55 on the day.
- Fed's Brainard Q&A: US dollar shifts can front-run US policy
- US Primary Dealer Poll from Reuters: All 18 US primary dealers see Fed on hold in June
- Infograph: The May 2016 US Employment report
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 325 vs 316 prior
- Fed's Brainard: There are benefits on holding off on hiking
- Forex trading video: A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY
- July still on the table - Hilsenrath
- Losses put European stocks in the red for the week
- German 10-year yields threaten lowest close of all time
- JPMorgan global PMIs slip
- Brexit bears sell the GBP bounce
- US ISM Non Manufacturing 52.9 vs 55.3 estimate
- April US factory orders +1.9% vs +1.9% m/m expected
- It is easy to sell high. It is harder to buy highs.
- Dollar still probes the downside....
- What's the trade after non-farm payrolls?
- Gold is running higher after weaker NFP data
- SNB says it hasn't made any changes to exemptions or monetary policy
- Headline: Swiss national bank introduces negative interest rates (update: it's a mistake)
- Surprise NFP sends the dollar lower
- June Fed hike odds plummet after non-farm payrolls miss
- US Trade Balance -37.4B vs. -41.0 billion
- May non-farm payrolls +38K vs 160K expected
The expectations was for NFP to rise by 160K. The actual number came in at 38K. The prior two months were revised down by the-58K. It was one month but was it? The 3 month average is 116K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% on the back of the labor participation rate tumbling to 62.6% as workers exit the labor force. It will be a tough one to explain away and the market started to take easing off the table in June. Lael Brainard was the first Fed official to speak - after the fact. She said that there are benefits to holding off on hiking, has concerns about Brexit, Yada. Yada. Yada. Look for the Fed to back pedal and send the ball going the other way. Fed's Mester speaks in Stockholm tomorrow and Yellen speaks on Monday. Can you hear her sounding the "prudent to wait" bells on the back of "risks are greater to the downside vs. runaway inflation" . PS ISM Non-manufacturing (there is no manufacturing is there?) was much weaker than expectations with New orders down sharply and the employment component moving below the 50 level.
The dollar was hammered on all the above (not surprising). It was lower against all the major currencies. The greenback was the weakest vs the NZD and JPY,(over 2% declines) but let's face it, the others did not fare much better. Let's review.
The EURUSD is closing the day and the week at the highs. The pair took at two key levels on the way up. The first - early on - was on a break of the 1.1214-18 level. The 2nd was on the break of the 1.1300 level. Each break turned the level from resistance to support. That is, the price did not trade below the level after the break. That my friends is a bullish market. Into next week, the risk level will be 1.1300. The next key target will be 1.1435-65. See why in the the video HERE .
The USDJPY is ending the day/week at the lows. The BOJ may not like it, but the USDJPY tumbled over 2%. and has headed into the years extreme area (from 105.54 to 107.63. On Monday the pair traded at 111.44 - the highest level since April 28th.
The GBPUSD rallied in sympathy with the greenbacks decline until the pair got near the 200 hour MA at the 1.4572 (the high reached 1.4580). Despite the weaker ISM Non Manufacturing the pair rolled over. The BREXIT vote will likely keep have traders selling expensive/buying cheap. The pair moved down to the 100 hour MA at the 1.4495 level (the low reached 1.4502) before stalling. BINGO. The 100 hour MA is cheap. The 200 hour MA is expensive. At least that will be the thinking for now. We will see what the weekend polls do to the pair on Monday. By the way, EURGBP was another favorite EUR pair today. It moved back above the 100 day MA at the 0.7797 level. That will be support in the new week.
The USDCAD tumbled as well. The May low at 1.2909 held support on the test today (the low reached 1.2914). A break will open the pair for further selling but there is always oil to watch. The NZDUSD moved back above the 0.6900 level (support now) and got close to the March high at 0.6965 (resistance now). A break will have traders thinking about the double top (high for year) at the 0.7050 area. AUDUSD spent May moving lower after the RBA cut. Today, the pair moved back above the 100 day MA at the 0.73588 level (closing at 0.7365).The 0.7408 (38.2% retracement) would be the next target if the pair can stay above the 100 day MA.
That does it for me. Have a GREAT weekend and good fortune with your trading next week. Remember Yellen on Monday may make the usual "Monday after NFP Hangover" not as hangoveree. She speaks at 12:30 PM ET/1630 GMT.