Forex new for NY trading on December 27, 2016
- US stocks end the day up. Dow fails to crack 20K again
- US Crude oil futures settle at $53.90. Up 1.69% but USDCAD rallies
- European stocks end the day with modest gains
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing index for Dec comes in at 8 vs 5 est.
- US Consumer Confidence rises to 113.7 vs 108.5 estimate
- Forex technical analysis: A technical look at the GBPUSD for the NA session
- A look at the technical picture at the EURUSD and USDJPY for the NA trading session
- US October Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +5.1% y/y vs +5.0% exp
- China will speed up the drafting of overseas investment regulations
In other markets:
- S&P index rose by 0.22%
- Nasdaq was up by 0.45%
- Dow was up by 0.06%
- 10 year yield 2.559%, up 2.2 BP
- Crude oil: $53.84, up 1.55%
- Spot Gold 1139.15, +0.38%
Observance of Christmas was Monday. Today was the observance of Boxing Day in the UK and Canada. Although US stock and bond market was open, along with the currency markets of course, the activity was light.
Looking at the chart above, the EURUSD low to high trading range was only 30 pips. In the NY session it was only about 13 pips. The GBPUSD had a 48 pip trading range for the day. The NY range was only 32 pips. The USDJPY managed a 55 pip range with the NY session around 31 pips. The largest range of the majors was 70 pips for the USDCAD. That is the strangest because 1. Canada was closed in observance of Boxing Day and 2. Oil prices moved higher. Typically, when oil prices move higher, the USDCAD weakens (CAD stronger). Today, the USDCAD not only had the largest trading range, but the price of the USDCAD moved higher. HMMMMM.....Sounds like a little holiday activity that does not sound that right.
On the economic front today:
- The S&P/Case Schiller home price index advanced by 5.61% YoY vs 5.39% last
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose by a greater than expected 113.7 vs 108.5 estimate. It was the highest reading since August 2001.
- Richmond Fed advanced to 8 from 5 estimate.
- The US sold 26 bln of 2 year notes at 1.280%
Overall, the data today was dollar supportive.
The USD did rise against all the major currencies with the exception of the EURUSD which was pretty much unchanged.
Technically, the EURUSD is trading above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.0334-42. Those MAs will continue to define bullish and bearish in the new trading day.
The USDJPY tried to move higher off the better data but failed on it's break above the 100 and 200 hour MA. The price is ending the day below the MAs at 117.48-52 (at 117.45). Like the EURUSD, stay below is more bearish. Move above will be more bullish.
The USDCAD is currently trading near the high at 1.3577 and that is just above the 50% of the 2016 trading range at 1.3574. A little more bullish into the new trading day.
The GBPUSD has resistance at the 1.2274-83 area. The last hourly bar moved into that region for the 2nd time today, but stalled at a high of 1.2281. It is currently back below that low area (trades at 1.2266). So the bears remain in control.
For the NZDUSD the pair has been able to stay above the swing low from Dec 20 at the 0.6881 for all of the NY trading session (and the European session as well). Stay above is slightly more bullish but the 100 hour MA above at 0.6901 still needs to be broken. The price of the NZDUSD has not traded above the 100 hour MA since December 14 (FOMC day).
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currency pairs.
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