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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: June 6-10

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Forex Pros - The New Zealand dollar trimmed a weekly decline against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, rebounding from a six-day low amid mounting fears over the U.S. economic outlook and as concerns over the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis eased.

NZD/USD hit 0.8108 on Friday, the pair's lowest since May 27; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8154 by close of trade, shedding 0.65% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7967, the low of May 26 and resistance at 0.8246, the high of June 1.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose significantly less-than-expected in May, increasing by just 54K as the private sector posted the smallest jobs gain in nearly a year. Analysts had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 169K last month. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.1% from 9.0% in April.

The kiwi was also supported as risk sentiment improved after the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund said the next tranche of international aid for Greece should be available in July. Greece's government said a review of the country's economic progress concluded "positively."

The New Zealand dollar retreated from a record high on Wednesday after official data showed that manufacturing activity in China slowed in May, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, the HSBC China PMI for May fell to a 10-month low of 51.6 from 51.8 in April, sparking fears over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth.

China is New Zealand's second largest trading partner.

On Tuesday, the kiwi rallied to an all-time high after the National Bank Business Outlook showed business confidence rebounded in May, boosting hopes that the central bank would raise interest rates in the near-term.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its official cash rate, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, June 7

The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer credit, which is correlated with consumer confidence and spending. Also Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, June 8

The U.S. is to publish official data on crude oil inventories while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which gives insights into the data policymakers looked at when making their interest rate decision.

Thursday, June 9

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its official cash rate. The interest rate announcement will be followed by a closely watched press conference to discuss monetary policy. Later in the day, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, as well as its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 10

RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on import prices, which contribute to overall inflation, while the Federal Reserve is to publish a report on the federal budget balance.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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