Ford Motor (F) Down 7.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ford Motor Company (F). Shares have lost about 7.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ford Motor due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Ford Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates But Fall Y/Y

Ford reported first-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents but declined from 63 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated first-quarter revenues came in at $42.8 billion, up 3.1% year over year.

Segmental Performance

In the first quarter, total wholesale volume in the Ford Blue segment declined 11% year over year to 626,000 units and missed our expectation of 670,000 units. Also, revenues from the segment declined 13% year over year to $21.8 billion and lagged our estimate of $22.96 billion on lower-than-expected volume. Earnings before interest and taxes came in at $905 million with an EBIT margin of 4.2%. EBIT missed our projection of $1.9 billion.

Total wholesale volume in the Ford Model e segment decreased 20% year over year to 10,000 units and lagged our expectation of 55,000 units. Revenues from the segment declined 84% year over year to $0.1 billion and missed our estimate of $2.39 billion on lower-than-expected volume. Loss before interest and taxes widened to $1.32 billion.

Total wholesale volume in the Ford Pro segment increased 21% year over year to 409,000 and exceeded our expectation of 354,000 units. Also, revenues from the segment grew 36% year over year to $18 billion and beat our expectations of $14.9 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes came in at $3 billion with an EBIT margin of 16.7%. EBIT exceeded our projection of $1.9 billion.

Overall, F’s total automotive revenues came in at around $39.89 billion, missing our estimate of $40.3 billion on lower-than-expected results from Ford Blue and Ford Model e.

First-quarter revenues from the Ford Credit unit came in at $2.89 billion, up 20.9% year over year and beat our estimate of $2.74 billion. Pretax earnings totaled $326 million, which increased from $303 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Financial Position

Ford reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $479 million for the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $19.72 billion as of Mar 31, 2024. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.4 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2024.

F declared its second-quarter 2024 regular dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on Jun 3, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 8, 2024.

2024 Guidance

For full-year 2024, Ford’s outlook for adjusted EBIT remained unchanged at $10-$12 billion. However, the company now expects adjusted free cash flow in the range of $6.5-$7.5 billion, up from the previous outlook of $6-$7 billion. Capital spending is expected in the range of $8-$9 billion, narrower than the previous estimate of $8-$9.5 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 17.33% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ford Motor has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Ford Motor has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Ford Motor belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Another stock from the same industry, Tesla (TSLA), has gained 2.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2024.

Tesla reported revenues of $21.3 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -8.7%. EPS of $0.45 for the same period compares with $0.85 a year ago.

Tesla is expected to post earnings of $0.60 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -34.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.4%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Tesla. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

Where Will Stocks Go…

If Biden Wins? If Trump Wins?

The answers may surprise you.

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5. Giant Chipmaker is building huge plants in the U.S. 

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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