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Fitch affirms UK at AA; Outlook negative

Fitch rating comments and projections

  • UK ratings of balance a high income, diversified and advanced economy against comparatively high public sector indebtedness
  • Projects public debt will likely rise again in 2016 to 42.5% of GDP and peak in 2018 at 43.5% of GDP. This is still below "B" median of 55.8% of GDP
  • Expects UK to invoke article 50 by the end of March 2017. Implying the UK would leave the EU two years later
  • says there is a wide range of possible outcomes concerning negotiations over brags it in future institutional and trade relationships between the UK and EU
  • expects general government deficit to be 3.6% of GDP this year
  • says assumes that private-sector investment growth will decline in 2017
  • given this uncertainty UK's ratings are not predicated on any particular base case
  • real GDP rose by 0.7% quarter on quarter in 2Q 2016 and initial estimates point to 0.5% growth in 3Q.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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