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Federal Reserve - BNP's "base case" is for a December rate hike

BNP's outlook for the FOMC through to the end of this year:

  • Their "base case" is a December rate hike
  • BNP do caution though "unless there is a shock to the markets or the economy before then"
  • Dec probability they put at 65%. They say that will increase as we approach the December meeting "and as the window narrows for some unforeseen development that could stymie" the move

BNP cite:

  • September statement said risks to the economy were roughly balanced ... and in December 2015 the hike came after a 'balanced' description of the economic risks
  • Regional Fed's favour a hike
  • NY Fed President Dudley says he expects a hike this year
  • Evans (Chicago Fed and a strong dove) says he's "fine" with hike in 2016

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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