BNP's outlook for the FOMC through to the end of this year:
- Their "base case" is a December rate hike
- BNP do caution though "unless there is a shock to the markets or the economy before then"
- Dec probability they put at 65%. They say that will increase as we approach the December meeting "and as the window narrows for some unforeseen development that could stymie" the move
- September statement said risks to the economy were roughly balanced ... and in December 2015 the hike came after a 'balanced' description of the economic risks
- Regional Fed's favour a hike
- NY Fed President Dudley says he expects a hike this year
- Evans (Chicago Fed and a strong dove) says he's "fine" with hike in 2016
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