Back above the 50% at 101.91 turns the bias around.
Earlier, I wrote how the price of the USDJPY held the 50% at the highs earlier in the day. That was more bearish. The price had traded above and below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue line in the chart below) but we needed to get below lower targets (and stay below the 100 hour MA (at 101.64). Well, the price could not stay below that MA line. The sellers turned to buyers.
Well that 50% line at the 101.91 level. What has happened there? The price has moved back above that line and that has led to increased buying. The price is now above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (green line). It is a fast break, the other way. The sellers are taking more control.
Is it appropriate to switch the Fibo around. That is, instead of measuring the correction of the move higher (like in the chart above), do we measure a move higher from the high on Friday (see hourly chart below). Yes. The try to the downside below the 50% and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart failed. Sellers turned to buyers. So now we go the other way.
Looking at the hourly chart the 38.2% comes in at 102.377 and the 50% comes in at 102.748. That 102.748 is in the range from the 4-hour chart above. The 100 and 200 hour MAs are also in that area. That becomes a key target area above.
When the market is unsure, the price goes up, it goes down. As traders we need to be flexible and follow the tools to define risk/bias and tools to target the targets. There will be targets that can't be reached and that may turn the tide completely around. So be aware. Be flexible.