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Factors Likely to Affect Gap (GPS) This Earnings Season

The Gap, Inc. GPS is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2020 numbers on Aug 27, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 288.2%. Moreover, the bottom line lagged the consensus mark by 54.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter loss of 39 cents has slightly narrowed in the past seven days from a loss of 40 cents. Notably, the company reported earnings of 63 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.06 billion, indicating a decline of 23.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Key Factors to Note

Gap has been reeling under significant impacts from the loss of in-store sales for all formats, stemming from temporary store closures for the past few months due to the pandemic. Further, a shift in consumers’ demand to more casual fashion to adapt to the stay-at-home trend led to an unfavorable product mix at its Banana Republic brand. Prior to the onset of the ongoing pandemic, inconsistent execution of product and marketing messages acted as headwinds.

Apart from these, elevated costs related to the pandemic have been weighing on margins. Also, sluggish merchandise margin remains a drag due to increased promotional activity across all brands. Cumulatively, these factors are likely to get reflected in fiscal second-quarter results.

Nonetheless, Gap has been gaining from strong online show amid the pandemic. The company has been witnessing strong online demand, driven by significant acceleration in the Old Navy and Athleta brands. Also, it is leveraging its omnichannel capabilities to fulfill online orders and serve customers. On its last earnings call, management noted that the momentum in online sales is likely to continue in the fiscal second quarter, with nearly 100% online sales growth reported in May.

With majority of its stores now reopened, the company has been witnessing robust store traffic and productivity, particularly in Old Navy and Athleta. Moreover, the company sees a strong recovery at Old Navy (Gap’s most powerful brand) in the initial phase of store reopening. Additionally, its latest deal with Kayne West to bring the YEEZY fashion label to its stores is seen as an effort to recover from the losses suffered from closures due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The Gap, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The Gap, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The Gap, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Gap, Inc. Quote

Zacks Model

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Gap this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Gap carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -33.02%.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Big Lots BIG currently has an Earnings ESP of +10.57% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar General Corporation DG has an Earnings ESP of +9.64% and a Zacks Rank #2, at present.

Best Buy Co. BBY currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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