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Facebook Offers Longs Historically Better Post-Earnings Performance

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Facebook ( FB ) is due with its Q4 results in the after-hours Wednesday, Feb. 1, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $1.31 per share on revenue of $8.51 billion.

Facebook is evenly mixed its moves between its earnings-driven after-hours trade and next-day regular session action, widening in nine of the 18 quarters since going public, or 50% of the time, and narrowing or reversing in the other nine quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs catch the better play thus far, with widening events in six of the 10 quarters where it posted an after-hours gain, or 60% of the time. On the downside, Facebook has seen its earnings-driven evening declines reverse in next-day trade in six of the eight negative moves recorded. In the case of downside moves, again favoring longs 75% of the time.

The historical post-earnings share performance data follows:

11/2/16 After-Hours: -6.9%; 11/3/16 Reg. Session: -5.6%

7/27/16 After-Hours: +5.7%; 7/28/16 Reg. Session: +1.3%

4/27/16 After-Hours: +8.9%; 4/28/16 Reg. Session: +7.2%

1/27/16 After-Hours: +12.9%; 1/28/16 Reg. Session: +15.5%

11/4/15 After-Hours: +3%; 11/5/15 Reg. Session: +4.6%

7/29/15 After-Hours: -2.4%; 7/30/15 Reg. Session: -1.8%

4/22/15 After-Hours: -1.9%; 4/23/15 Reg. Session: -2.6%

1/28/15 After-Hours: -1.3%; 1/29/15 Reg. Session: +2.3%

10/28/14 After-Hours: -9.8%; 10/29/14 Reg. Session: -6%

7/23/14 After-Hours: +5.5%; 7/24/14 Reg. Session: +5.1%

4/23/14 After-Hours: +3.8%; 4/24/13 Reg. Session: -0.8%

1/29/14 After-Hours: +12.2%; 1/30/14 Reg. Session: +14%

10/30/13 After-Hours: +0.02%; 10/31/13 Reg. Session: +2.4%

7/24/13 After-Hours: +17.7%; 7/25/13: Reg. Session: +29.6%

5/1/13 After-Hours: -0.1%; 5/2/13 Reg. Session: +5.6%

1/30/13 After-Hours: -4%; 1/31/13 Reg. Session: -0.8%

10/23/12 After-Hours: +10.6%; 10/24/12 Reg. Session: +19.1%

7/26/12 After-Hours: -9.8%; 7/27/12 Reg. Session: -11.7%

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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