ExxonMobil (XOM) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is set to report third-quarter 2020 results on Oct 30, before the opening bell.

In the last-reported quarter, the leading integrated energy company reported a loss of 70 cents, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 63 cents, owing to lower oil-equivalent production, coronavirus-induced weak commodity prices and reduced industry refining margins in both U.S. and non-U.S. operations. Notably, ExxonMobil beat earnings in two of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 303.3%, as shown in the chart below.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise


Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter loss per share of 27 cents has witnessed three downward revisions and two upward movements over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 139.7% from the prior-year reported number.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter revenues of $49.5 billion indicates a 24% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

Although the price of crude oil in the September quarter recovered sequentially, thanks to the easing of social-distancing measures, the commodity’s price was below the year-ago quarter’s level.

Notably, the dip in oil prices is likely to have affected the integrated energy major’s total production volumes. Notably, the consensus estimate for oil-equivalent production volumes is pinned at 3,794 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBoE/D), suggesting a drop from the year-ago quarter’s 3,899 MBoE/D.

Moreover, as compared to the prior-year comparable quarter, ExxonMobil’s refining business is likely to have taken a hit owing to the pandemic. Importantly, for the company’s worldwide daily refinery throughput, the consensus estimate is pegged at 3,798 thousand barrel per day (MBbl/D), suggesting a decline from 4,052 MBbl/D in the year-ago quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -4.51% as the Most Accurate Estimate of loss of 29 cents per share is wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 27 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for ExxonMobil, here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Antero Midstream Corporation AM has an Earnings ESP of +9.89% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

EOG Resources, Inc. EOG has an Earnings ESP of +48.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 5.

Oceaneering International, Inc. OII has an Earnings ESP of +33.91% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct 28.

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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