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Exxon Mobil (XOM) Down 15.2% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Exxon Mobil CorporationXOM . Shares have lost about 15.2% in the past month, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is XOM due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Fourth-Quarter 2017 Results

ExxonMobil posted lower-than-expected results in fourth-quarter 2017, thanks to lower refinery throughput. This was partially offset by higher liquid price realizations.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 88 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06. Also, the bottom line fell from the year-ago quarter level of 90 cents.

Total revenues in the quarter increased to $66,515 million from $56,399 million a year ago. However, the top line failed to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $74,444 million.

Operational Performance

Upstream: Quarterly earnings - excluding U.S. tax reform and impairments - were $2.5 billion, reflecting an improvement of $1 billion from the year-ago quarter. Increased price realizations from liquids drove the upside.

Production averaged 3.991 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MMBOE/d), lower than 4.121 MMBOE/d in the year-ago quarter.

Liquid production fell year over year to 2.251 million barrels per day. However, natural gas production was 10.441 MMCF/d (millions of cubic feet per day), up from 10.424 MMCF/d in the year-ago period.

Downstream: The segment recorded profits - excluding U.S. tax reform and impairments - of $952 million. The figure is $289 million lower than the October-December quarter of 2016. Last year, the segment reported higher profit owing to proceeds from the sale of the retail unit in Canada.

ExxonMobil's refinery throughput averaged 4.2 million barrels per day (MMB/D), down almost 5% from the year-earlier level.

Chemical: After excluding U.S. tax reform, this unit contributed saw a $63-million rise in earnings from the prior-year quarter.

Financials

During the quarter under review, ExxonMobil generated cash flow of $8.8 billion from operations and asset divestments. The energy giant returned $3.3 billion to shareholders through dividends. Capital and exploration spending surged more than 100% year over year to almost $7.6 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision higher for the current quarter.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and Consensus

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and Consensus | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, XOM has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum is doing a lot better with a C. The stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Zacks' style scores indicate that the company's stock is more suitable for value than momentum investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, XOM has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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