Exclusive Brexit Poll Update: What Polls Do Not Show You

There are times you feel you are the only sane one in an insane asylum. I think this way sometimes when I feel markets get irrational or do not add up. I have felt this way recently watching markets act like Brexit is dead and buried by pushing sterling higher as public polls showed Remain well in the lead. I addressed this in my most recent article, Exclusive Brexit Poll Results: Is Brexit Dead?

Well, there was a reality check on Tuesday as public polls turned mixed and sterling reacted accordingly by falling of its perch. This is not to say the likely outcome has been reversed but a two-way risk appears to have been restored for now

If you followed our polls since we started publishing them nearly three months ago, you would have seen a consistent strong expectation for Brexit. While our poll results are likely tilted too far to the Leave side due to a strong motivation to express an opinion for Brexit, it has been the feedback we have received from many of our survey participants that makes out poll unique and suggested a closer contest than the public (as opposed to online) polls were showing. As I have noted, we do not have a stake in the EU referendum nor a bias but with our poll results and Brexit Poll Feedback sent to us mainly by the Leave side, it is a challenge to come across as neutral, even though this is our stance.

In this regard, our poll shows more than the data indicates and although anecdotal, we have found the comments sent to us most revealing. Here is just a sampling of the hundreds of emails we have received as I could write a book with the keen and often passionate insights sent to us.

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Vote for Our Children

Being a dairy farmer in a tenant farm, staying in the EU would probably be what the mass populist expect from me. But, I'm a man who'd press the button saying do not press. It's time to change, Europe is unsettled, immigration is a mess and the rich poor decide too wide. Although I do believe that if an exit was voted the coming few years would be difficult I think that for my children, entering the world of work, maybe into agriculture life would be easier. I do stand a chance of losing our single farm payments, so be it. Subsidy should be a bonus not a necessity. Personally we have survived without payments for five years as we have used them to buy a property, although they paid for a house the farm survived without their income. It's not been easy but I think it's made us better farmers, more adaptable to hardship and efficient. The polls are set up to scare us, the rich stand a chance of being a little less rich, I don't trust government, fear is a wonderful way of control. Vote out, vote for future, vote for our children's future not ours.

Yours Sincerely

Fishermen for Brexit?

You may be interested in a conversation I just had with our fishmonger. He is firmly for Brexit and all but one of his contacts in the industry are too. He said it's incredibly frustrating that British fishermen seem to have lower quotas than their Spanish and French counterparts. Apparently last week a shoal of tuna came into shore off Cornwall and, because none of our fishermen had tuna quotas, they had to stand by while European boats scooped up the lot.

The fisheries argument for Brexit seems to me to be very strong and probably the most simple to make. Yet it seems to be rarely talked of in the media. Perhaps it will get more air time as we approach the referendum?

I also think people are becoming more sceptical of the wild negativity coming out of the UK government (and the IFS, IMF etc, etc). Even BBC radio today were pointing out that George Osborne's claims that Brexit would hurt pensions by some specific amount (due to lower sterling, higher inflation and more market volatility) were entirely spurious, conjecture dressed up as science. Obviously the polls have edged in favour of Remain recently, but I think that may shift back again in coming days.

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Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.