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Exclusive Brexit Poll Update: Is Brexit Dead?

Is Brexit dead? This is the question many are asking as public phone polls and bookmaker odds point in that direction. However, online polls suggest a closer vote and our tracking poll, which is a voluntary online survey (as opposed to directly soliciting responses), continues to show a strong expectation for Brexit as it has since we started it nearly three months ago.

Given the way bookmaker odds have swung to Remain (see Brexit Poll Conspiracy?) and a strong performance for sterling, we were surprised to see our survey results continue to be strongly in favor of a Brexit outcome (see latest survey results below). While the numbers in favor of Brexit appear lopsided, they likely continue to reflect a strong desire by the Leave camp to express an opinion in our poll.

There is no doubt that the Leave side is more passionate and thus motivated to vote. This does not necessarily mean it will prevail but it also suggests the game is not over. The following are from just a few of the hundreds of emails we have received and many are quite revealing as many feel this is not a level playing field. What makes our poll special is the feedback we get from our participants, which digs deeper into sentiment than just submitting a poll response.

I would suggest two main reasons why your Poll is so different to the mainstream polls.

1) Leave Campaign voters tend to be more vocal. There is a reason for leaving they want people to know it, Remain Campaigns are happy with the status quo and hope for minimal change in the future, thus they have less to get passionate about. Leave Campaigns are more passionate and will therefore respond to surveys like yours.

2) Political Classes (influencers) want the Leave Campaign to fail... there's little doubt that almost every self-respecting organisation would like to Remain, from the IMF to Cameron. For this reason Leave Campaigns on the ground have less space to say their piece. As an example many articles on News based websites have no comments section, the BBC for example chooses what to allow their audience to give feedback on. And they don't want feedback on the Referendum. The political classes are not allowing a level playing field. The Remain Campaign will see a growth just because the freedom to express Leave views is limited. On a trust level the Leave campaign wins hands down. People can see that Remain Campaigns don't want the message out there.

The question I suppose will be answered on 23rd June - have our political classes got it very, very wrong, I for one hope so.

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My own view on the disparity in public polls is that the referendum was a mistake motivated by the Conservatives party electoral threat in the 2015 national elections by the UK Independence Party. Having committed to the referendum and faced with the strong possibility of losing, a global, organised campaign is being initiated representing the so called “1%” and popularly characterised as “Project Fear”.

As far as polls goes, the accompanying narrative of polls seems to be used to peer-pressure voters into conformity - Argumentum ad populum. When polls show a majority of people favor a policy or candidate, it marginalizes those who disagree with the poll, peer-pressuring them into conformity by making them think their opinions are unpopular, invalid, or irrelevant…

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Public polls are mixed because of all the outside interference from just about everyone and the fear factor from the remain group but I think anyone with any sense will take no notice and vote out

A Leave voter raises doubts:

I think that the examples given of people's views of the reason for the polls disparity are all valid. However, as I have said before, I shall be voting for Brexit but don't expect it to happen as the fear campaign takes effect. I think that this is already happening and that the Remain side probably do have a lead but maybe not as great as is being reported because of the valid reasons given by your contributors

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Brexit Poll Results:

Brexit = vote to leave the EU

No Brexit = vote to stay in the EU

Overall Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar26 Apr2 Apr9 Apr16
Brexit 58% 85% 85% 86% 87% 88% 85%
No Brexit 42% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12% 15%
Apr23 Apr30 May6 May13 May20 May27
Brexit 85% 84% 86% 85% 86% 87%
No Brexit 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% 13%

Past Week: UK respondents expressed the highest sentiment yet for Brexit

UK Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar26 Apr2 Apr9 Apr16
Brexit 83% 91% 90% 84% 92% 94% 89%
No Brexit 17% 9% 10% 16% 8% 6% 11%
Apr23 Apr30 May6 May13 May20 May27
Brexit 88% 87% 91% 87% 90% 93%
No Brexit 12% 13% 9% 13% 10% 7%

Past week: Non-UK expectations for Brexit stayed steady with a smaller sample

Non-UK Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar26 Apr2 Apr9 Apr16
Brexit 12% 53% 58% 70% 74% 81% 87%
No Brexit 78% 47% 42% 30% 26% 19% 13%
Apr23 Apr30 May6 May13 May20 May27
Brexit 77% 81% 82% 63% 78% 78%
No Brexit 23% 19% 18% 27% 22% 22%

Breakdown of Total UK vs Non-UK Respondents in our poll

Total # Mar6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar26 Apr2 Apr9 Apr16
UK 32% 88% 85% 90% 89% 89% 88%
Non-UK 88% 12% 15% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Apr23 Apr30 May6 May13 May20 May27
UK 88% 88% 89% 89% 88% 89%
Non-UK 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11%

As I have been noting, the value of sterling is being closely watched as a barometer of EU referendum sentiment. In this past week, sterling put in a strong performance, reflecting a shift in sentiment in favor of no Brexit although it is closing off its highs, suggesting the game is not over. GBP/USD May 27 close 1.4610 vs. 1.4499 (May 20 close), Past week's range 1.4443-1.4739.

Note, the forex market can be very fickle and quick to change directions at the first hint of any sentiment shift so keep an eye on the value of sterling as the EU referendum comes closer on the radar.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

jay@tradersadvocate.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.