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Exclusive Brexit Poll Results: The Case for Brexit vs. Remain

Is the unthinkable to the political establishment thinkable? This should be the question being asked as according to public polls, the outcome is currently a tossup. However, our private tracking poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, continues to show a strong expectation for Brexit (see results below).

The disparity between our poll and public polls remains glaring and can be partly explained by the motivation being shown by the Leave side to express its opinion. As I have been noting, we do not have a stake in the referendum and are unbiased. So we continue to ask our survey participants for their thoughts on why there is such a difference in findings between our poll and public polls.

In this regard, we have gotten many comments from those who have participated in our poll and most have expressed passion in making a case for Brexit. On the other side, the main argument for staying seems to be fear of the unknown and a preference for the status quo, which can be a powerful one that cannot be ignored. While the Remain side appears to be counting on fear, the Leave side seems to be counting on turnout to rule the day. The following are comments from some of our poll participants trying to explain the disparity in the polls:

I believe the reason is:

  1. A majority want to leave the EU.
  1. Most of those people believe that the outers are in the minority and that in the end, the British will lose their nerve and vote for the status quo, even though they know it is wrong.
  1. So, most people want to be out but believe in the end the vote will be in.
  1. I think this is wrong. The outers will remain strong and the outers will win.

I think there is a higher percentage of IN voters who are apathetic and not really galvanised into reading Brexit articles or participating in on-line polls. They’ll declare themselves as IN voters when asked and have to give an answer. OUT voters seem to be more passionate about the subject. They may be more inclined to actually make the effort of going to the polling stations and voting on June 23rd.

Importantly, even though the British people are split in their desire to remain or leave, the leave group is a very much more determined group with a capitol D. Someone said this week that this group would walk across broken glass with bare feet to make it to the polling booth to vote and I believe it.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Brexit Poll Results:

Brexit = vote to leave the EU

No Brexit = vote to stay in the EU

Overall Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16
Brexit 58% 85% 85% 86% 87% 88% 85%
No Brexit 42% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12% 15%
Apr 23 Apr 30 May 6 May13
Brexit 85% 84% 86% 85%
No Brexit 15% 16% 14% 15%

Past Week: UK respondents continue to show a very strong expectation for Brexit

UK Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16
Brexit 83% 91% 90% 84% 92% 94% 89%
No Brexit 17% 9% 10% 16% 8% 6% 11%
Apr 23 Apr 30 May 6 May13
Brexit 88% 87% 91% 87%
No Brexit 12% 13% 9% 13%

Past week: Non-UK expectations for Brexit slipped but with a smaller sample

Non-UK Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16
Brexit 12% 53% 58% 70% 74% 81% 87%
No Brexit 78% 47% 42% 30% 26% 19% 13%
Apr 23 Apr 30 May 6 May13
Brexit 77% 81% 82% 68%
No Brexit 23% 19% 18% 32%

Breakdown of Total UK vs Non-UK Respondents in our poll

Total # Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 16
UK 32% 88% 85% 90% 89% 89 88%
Non-UK 88% 12% 15% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Apr 23 Apr 30 May 6 May13
UK 88% 88% 89% 89%
Non-UK 12% 12% 11% 11%

Sterling, meanwhile, traded lower this past week but it was more a function of dollar strength than Brexit concerns although the latter may be keeping a cap on the upside. As I have been noting, the forex market will likely act as a barometer of sentiment for the EU referendum and in this regard, the value of sterling should be closely watched the closer we get to the June 23 vote. GBPUSD May 6 close 1.4500, past week low/high 1.4341/1.4530, May 6 close 1.4368.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

jay@tradersadvocate.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.