Narrow range since the December ECB
The fundamental push-and-pull of EUR/USD over the past two months has been the gyrations of ECB policy, risk aversion and diminished expectations for Fed hikes.
Those factors have largely fought to a standstill since the ECB cut on Dec 2.
Technically, the result has been a sideways trade in a 3.5 cent range from 1.0708 to 1.1060. Lately, the range has been narrowing into what looks like a wedge.
For the moment, the swift rejection of the rally to 1.0940 today argues for the downside and a test of the support in the trendline since the start of January.