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EURUSD – A Strong jump, not hitting its targets yet

The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.3086, and came very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped only 6 pips before it, then it spent the night in a tight range between 1.3183 & 1.3150. With this, the Euro jumped strongly, but this jump has not reached its target yet. Naturally, we expect more of the same today, and soaring above 1.32. But, before we get overexcited, we must wait for a break of the falling trend line from yesterday’s top on intraday chart, which is running currently at 1.3174. If we do break this line, the Euro will start rising again, and we will target 1.3266 first, and may be at a later time 1.3325. On the other hand, short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3112 will be our support of the day. If broken, a correction will be initiated, and the price will start giving up yesterday’s gains. This will target a test of a very noteworthy trend line at 1.3040. If this is also broken, the positive technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will target 1.2952.

Support:

• 1.3112: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday’s low.

• 1.3040: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and also Jul 28th high.

• 1.2952: a well known previous support resistance, which includes several daily highs and lows, among those Jul 27th high, and Jul 15th low.

Resistance:

• 1.3174: the falling trend line from yesterday’s high on intraday charts.

• 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.

• 1.3325: Apr 7th low.

USDJPY – Definitely another wave down!

No change! Nothing of any technical importance took place yesterday, therefore, we still hold the same technical outlook we did yesterday. After we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, the correction we have been monitoring for the past days is finally over, and it is official: we are in a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday’s low 85.93, which is closing on the important resistance 86.81 this morning, warns of a correction to what we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop from 88.10 to 85.93). Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or without, dropping far below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into a most probable scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce from Friday’s low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will keep shooting higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the “ceiling” for the price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting support 86.25 instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday’s low, we find 85.52 & 84.81 to be the most attractive of which.

Support:

• 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday’s low.

• 85.52: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th.

• 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.

Resistance:

• 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support.

• 87.49: Jul 29th high.

• 88.10: Jul 28th top.

GBPUSD – Break-show entertain spectators!

The Pound broke the top of the channel which has excited us for several days. It broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5762, and reached both suggested targets 1.5830 & 1.5919 successfully. This violent and sizable move which followed the break of the channel was completely expected as we boldly expressed in yesterday’s report. The reason for this, is the importance of the channel, and when such an important channel is broken, you do not expect a 50-100 pips move, but multiples of that! Until the moment of preparing this report, the Pound has harvested more than 160 pips above the channel in less than 24 hours. There is no reason to expect a change in direction after this break, expect for the possibility of a short term correction. The technical outlook is strikingly positive, and we do expect more of the same to come next, even if it was interrupted with a short term correction. Short term resistance is at 1.5929, and if broken, we will soar to 1.60 for the first time in exactly 6 months (the last time we saw this level was exactly 6 months from today on Feb 3rd). The targets for such a break will be 1.6012 & 1.6111. The support is at 1.5868, and in case it is broken, the price will correct the whole rising move from Jul 30th low, with the ideal target area for such a correction between 1.5784 & 1.5694.

Support:

• 1.5868: important intraday level.

• 1.5784: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.5549.

• 1.5694: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.5549.

Resistance:

• 1.5929: Asian session high.

• 1.6012: Dec 28th 2009 high.

• 1.5919: Sep 2nd 2009 low.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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