US Markets

Euro rallies, but outlook stays bleak as ECB easing in focus

Credit: REUTERS/KAI PFAFFENBACH

The euro rose from a two-month low against the dollar on Thursday, after the European Central Bank failed to deliver an interest rate cut that some investors had expected and after its president Mario Draghi offered a glimmer of optimism about his outlook on the euro zone economy.

ECB says it sees rates at "their present or lower levels"

Key benchmark rate kept unchanged at -0.40%

ECB's Draghi sees low recession risk, but H2 rebound unlikely

U.S. data generally positive ahead of Fed meeting next week

Sterling trades under $1.25 vs dollar

Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

Recasts, adds comment, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - The euro rose from a two-month low against the dollar on Thursday, after the European Central Bank failed to deliver an interest rate cut that some investors had expectedand after its president Mario Draghi offered a glimmer of optimism about his outlook on the euro zone economy.

Investors prior to Draghi's comments had priced in a dovish message.

The euro recovered after the ECB, which kept interest rates unchanged, said in its statement rates would stay "at their present or lower levels" and opened the door for more quantitative easing.

Despite Thursday's gains, the euro's outlook remained downbeat due to the prospect of further monetary easing.

"I think the market had fairly dovish expectations going into the ECB meeting and some in the market had priced in a cut," said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist, at TD Securities in New York.

When the market did not get the cut, that was a signal to cover the shorts on the euro, he added.

"Now the question was: how dovish would Draghi be at his briefing? While he was pretty dovish, there were some positive elements as well," Issa said.

Draghi, at his press briefing, said he saw low risk of recession in the euro zone, but noted that a rebound in the second half was less likely, as he voiced concerns about stubbornly low inflation.

In mid-morning trading, the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1170 EUR=, after earlier dropping to a fresh two-month low of $1.1102.

Earlier in the day, the euro was trading lower after a bleak German Ifo business sentiment survey for July.

The European common currency gained for the first time in five days and has shed 1.7% against the dollar so far this month.

The euro also rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to 1.1038 francs EURCHF=, and was up 0.6% versus the yen at 121.20 yen JPY=.

The dollar index, on the other hand, slipped 0.2% to 97.574 .DXY, led by losses versus the euro.

The greenback gained against the yen, however, rising 0.3% to 108.47 yen JPY= after a batch of generally positive U.S. economic data.

New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged 1.9% in June, while weekly jobless claims declined to 206,000 in the latest week.

"The strong data suggested any rate cuts by the Fed would be the modest insurance variety and not the start of a full blown easing cycle," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled next week, and investors are widely expecting an interest rate cut.

The pound, meanwhile, remained below $1.25 against the U.S. dollar and not far from the 27-month low it reached last week. It last traded at $1.2474GBP=D3 as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson assembled his cabinet.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 10:29 AM (1429 GMT)

Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Previous Session

Pct Change

YTD Pct Change

High Bid

Low Bid

Euro/Dollar

EUR=

$1.1171

$1.1139

+0.29%

-2.61%

+1.1187

+1.1102

Dollar/Yen

JPY=

108.4400

108.1700

+0.25%

-1.65%

+108.4900

+108.0500

Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

121.15

120.50

+0.54%

-4.02%

+121.3600

+120.0600

Dollar/Swiss

CHF=

0.9877

0.9847

+0.30%

+0.64%

+0.9903

+0.9845

Sterling/Dollar

GBP=

1.2475

1.2481

-0.05%

-2.21%

+1.2517

+1.2466

Dollar/Canadian

CAD=

1.3131

1.3139

-0.06%

-3.71%

+1.3152

+1.3115

Australian/Dollar

AUD=

0.6956

0.6976

-0.29%

-1.32%

+0.6984

+0.6951

Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

1.1034

1.0969

+0.59%

-1.95%

+1.1055

+1.0963

Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.8953

0.8923

+0.34%

-0.35%

+0.8959

+0.8892

NZ Dollar/Dollar

NZD=

0.6675

0.6704

-0.43%

-0.63%

+0.6707

+0.6673

Dollar/Norway

NOK=

8.6582

8.6432

+0.17%

+0.23%

+8.6721

+8.6313

Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

9.6729

9.6259

+0.49%

-2.35%

+9.6875

+9.5962

Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

9.4319

9.4264

+0.34%

+5.22%

+9.4633

+9.4229

Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

10.5372

10.5018

+0.34%

+2.67%

+10.5547

+10.4890

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Olga Kotaga in London Editing by Susan Thomas)

((gertrude.chavez@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6322; Reuters Messaging: gertrude.chavez.reuters.com@reuters.net))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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