EUR/USD up 60 pips
I don't see how Draghi can completely ignore the improvement in commodity prices and the pass-throughs to inflation in today's press conference. He is also likely to acknowledge better financial conditions.
He may try to balance that with talk of slower growth or theoretical talk on further easing in order to keep the euro under pressure.
For now, the market likes the upside but the euro move alone over the past hour doesn't tell the full story. The US dollar is broadly weaker once again.
Note that initial jobless claims and the Philly fed will also hit just before Draghi.
There's no way Draghi can top last April's press conference.