How far off is Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step by step through the calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$1.32b||US$1.52b||US$1.66b||US$1.85b||US$2.04b||US$2.18b||US$2.30b||US$2.40b||US$2.49b||US$2.57b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x8||Analyst x9||Analyst x5||Analyst x4||Analyst x3||Est @ 6.92%||Est @ 5.44%||Est @ 4.4%||Est @ 3.68%||Est @ 3.17%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8%||US$1.2k||US$1.3k||US$1.3k||US$1.3k||US$1.3k||US$1.3k||US$1.3k||US$1.2k||US$1.2k||US$1.1k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.6b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.8%– 2.0%) = US$39b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$39b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= US$17b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$29b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$116, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.NYSE:YUM Discounted Cash Flow June 30th 2021
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yum! Brands as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.438. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Yum! Brands, we've compiled three additional aspects you should assess:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Yum! Brands (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does YUM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
In This StoryYUM
- NIO Inc.'s (NYSE:NIO) Shift From Loss To Profit
- New Oriental Education & Technology Group (NYSE:EDU) stock falls 12% in past week as one-year earnings and shareholder returns continue downward trend
- This Insider Has Just Sold Shares In C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI)
- Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) can Easily Afford its $15.5 billion Donation to the Common Prosperity Initiative