Market Intelligence

Equity Market Insight from Nasdaq MID - January 20, 2017

Friday, January 20, 2017, 11:15 AM, EST

  • NASDAQ Composite +0.4% Dow +0.5% S&P 500 +0.45% Russell 2000 +0.6%
  • NASDAQ Advancers: 1365 / Decliners: 767
  • Today’s Volume (100day avg): +3%

Inauguration Day has taken over the headlines, while all major indices are advancing. More than 70% of the S&P 500 constituents are in the green, but still lower WoW, attempting to not post consecutive weekly declines since early November. Telecoms and Materials are the biggest gainers. OPEC nations’ promise to cut production is on its trajectory, boosting Crude Oil by 2.7% this morning.

In case you were wondering, going back to 1981 there have been six Inauguration Days that fell on market trading days. Of these, 5 were negative: 1981 – (2.09%); 1989 – (0.17%); 1993 (0.43%); 1997 - +0.16; 2005 - (0.65%); 2009 – (4.01%).

  • Flip this House: It takes approximately 5 hours to completely turn around the White House to the new occupants: Here’s an article from The Washington Post on today’s activity at the White House
  • And from
    • Except for Washington's first inaugural, when he was sworn in on April 30, 1789, all presidents until 1937 were inaugurated in March in an effort to avoid bad weather. The 20th Amendment to the Constitution (passed in 1933) changed the inaugural date to January 20.

    • The first ceremony broadcast on the Internet was Bill Clinton's second inauguration. (1997)

    • On the second day of his presidency, Barack Obama was sworn in a second time by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. because, following Roberts's lead, Obama improperly recited the oath.

DOE inventory data released yesterday shows a build of 2.4m barrels vs. an expected +100k barrels. Distillates declined but gasoline had a large 5.9m barrel build for second consecutive week. That compares/contrasts to API’s data that indicated a 5mbl draw and a huge 9.75mbl build in gasoline. However traders are focused on OPEC productions and early indications from the Saudi and some others suggests the planned cuts are on track. WTI is up 2.5% this morning and Brent is up 2%.

Technical Take:

As Donald Trump readies to be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States of America, the US Dollar is strengthening vs. both the euro and the Japanese Yen. What’s unusual is that the inversely correlated gold miners ETF (GDX) is surprisingly trading up 1% in today’s session. The irony is that gold miners were one of the worst performing groups immediately following Trump’s election victory with the GDX declining over 22% over the ensuing four weeks. In late December it bottomed with a weekly hammer candlestick pattern which was the start of five consecutive weekly gains. Today as America affirms its election results, gold miners are showing relative strength while bucking their inverse correlation to two major world currencies. Although 2016 was a wild and turbulent year for the GDX, it finished with an annual gain of 53%. So far in 2017 the GDX is leading most sectors and industries with a 10% gain. More recently in January 2017 the GDX broke above its 4-month declining trend line. It has also made two upside gaps, both of which were filled intraday but managed to hold the line on a closing basis. The more recent gap line at $22.84 was tested earlier today for the third consecutive session, and buyers once again stepped up to lift it higher. A move above this month’s highs, $23.56, should signal a resumption of the strong uptrend already seen in 2017 and might suggest the US Dollar is due for a longer period of consolidation.

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes:

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Annie O'Callaghan is Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Annie has worked for NASDAQ in a variety of roles including support of Nasdaq C-level management in client retention and customer service. Annie also served as a Sales Director in Nasdaq’s Transactions Services business. Prior to joining Nasdaq, Annie worked at AX Trading, managing accounts for its Alternative Trading System and served on Credit Suisse's trading desk as an Electronic & Algorithmic Sales Trading Analyst.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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