Update: TSLA stock has been halted for news pending.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) stock is going bonkers Tuesday afternoon after news broke that a Saudi Arabia sovereign wealth fund invested $2 billion-plus in the electric vehicle company. TSLA stock jumped to $350 in response to that rumor. Minutes later, Elon Musk tweets his intention to take TSLA stock private at $420 per share. TSLA stock jumped to $370 in response to that tweet.
Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.
- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018
What should investors make of all these rumors? Is Musk actually taking the company private? Most importantly, should you buy TSLA stock because a new go-private catalyst has emerged?
In short, here are my answers. Don't read too much into the rumors. Musk says a lot of things on Twitter, and only a handful of what Musk tweets ever comes to fruition. And, while I own TSLA stock because I believe in the long-term bull thesis, I'm not buying more because of this new go-private catalyst.
Speculating on a Musk tweet seems unnecessarily risky.
Broad takeaway? Don't buy more TSLA stock on this go-private rumor. Instead, stay the course and focus on the long-term growth narrative.
Here's a deeper look:
Will Elon Musk Take Tesla Private?
It seems unusual that Elon Musk would tweet in the middle of a trading day that he is considering taking his own company private at a 20% premium.
Then again, Elon Musk's Twitter behavior is anything but usual. He tweets a lot for a CEO of a Big Tech company. An unusually large portion of those tweets are replies. The tweets are sometimes exceptionally informative and, at other times, pure entertainment. In the big picture, Musk's tweets tend to send TSLA stock higher .
I think this recent "go private" Tweet is simply more of the same. The tweet teases the idea of going private at a huge premium, provides entertainment, creates controversy, pushes TSLA stock higher and burns shorts.
From this perspective, I don't think any investor should build an investment thesis on TSLA stock based on Musk taking the company private. At this point, that catalyst is a complete wild card. Speculating on this particular go-private catalyst is unnecessarily risky.
What to Do With Tesla Stock
The investment takeaway here is simple: Stay the course.
Regardless of whether Musk is planning on taking Tesla private or whether a big wealth fund has taken a massive stake in Tesla, the long-term bull thesis on TSLA stock remains unchanged.
This is a company that is miles ahead of other automakers in the electric vehicle market, in terms of mass market production rates, brand value, and innovation. Recent hiccups from production and cash burn have moved into the rear-view mirror. Now, the near-term outlook has a bullish skew and is dominated by big production numbers and potential profitability in the back half of 2018.
In the long-run, I think TSLA stock will head well above $400 due to global electric vehicle adoption tailwinds. If we get to $400 within the next few months due to a go-private catalyst, then that isn't a bad thing. But, inevitably, we will get to $400 within the next 12 months.
Thus, the best plan of action with TSLA stock is to stay the course. Musk may or may not take Tesla private at $420. Regardless, TSLA stock will push through $400 relatively soon.
Bottom Line on TSLA Stock
Be aware of the go-private rumors. But don't bake them into your investment thesis. Instead, focus on the long-term growth narrative at Tesla, which is simply strengthening each day as Model 3 production ramps, and know that $400 is just around the corner, with or without a go-private catalyst.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA.
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