The Eight Best Market Predictors
There are a lot of articles discussing data points which can help investors predict markets. Most have some value in them (though not all). In this vein, the Wall Street Journal has done some digging to assemble the eight best historical market signals. The first thing to know is that all eight predictors, each of which has a great track record, show that market returns over the next decade will be below average. Even the most bullish of the group says that returns will be way below what they have been over the last decade. Some of the eight predictors include the Household Equity Allocation, the Q Ratio, the Buffett Indicator, the CAPE, and the Dividend Yield. The Household Equity Allocation has historically been the most accurate, as households tend to have the highest allocation to stocks right before a crash.
FINSUM : That is quite a data set stacking up against the market. We expect a rough market and a recession within 18 months, but the gains until then could be good.
- household allocation
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