Dollar drops after retail data suggests slowing U.S. economy


By Kate Duguid

NEW YORK, Feb 14 () - The dollar fell on Thursday after a report that U.S. retail sales recorded the biggest drop in more than nine years in December, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that retail sales fell 1.2 percent, the largest decline since September 2009 when the economy was emerging from recession. Data for November was revised slightly down to show retail sales edging up 0.1 percent versus 0.2 percent as previously reported.

"The dollar had been looking good until retail sales came in much weaker than expected. The data suggests there is less in the economy than people had thought, and has pushed the dollar lower," said Daniel Katzive, head of foreign exchange strategy North America at BNP Paribas.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was down 0.14 percent, last at 96.997 .

Following the retail data release, a forecast model by the Atlanta Federal Reserve revised downward the U.S. economy's expected fourth-quarter growth rate to under 2 percent. And JPMorgan Chase & Co cut its estimates of where the U.S. Federal Reserve will leave interest rates over the next two years, with just one hike this year and another in 2020.

Thursday's data is supportive of the Fed's current inclination towards patience in its rate-hiking cycle. After four increases in 2018, market participants are anticipating the central bank will hold off on raises for the next one or two quarters.

"The Fed is on hold for Q1 and by the time it needs to make a decision on policy again, we'll have a lot more data and we'll have a better sense if this is softness associated with equity market concerns, or whether there was something more profound going on," said Katzive.

The euro rose on the back of the dollar's move, up 0.29 percent, last at $1.130.

Earlier on Thursday, the single currency hit a three-month low after economic data showed Germany's economy stalled in the fourth quarter of 2018. Broadly, the euro zone economy slowed as expected year-on-year in the last three months of 2018. The fall was cushioned, however, by hopes of progress in China-U.S. trade talks, which supported the currency.

GRAPHIC-Citi Economic Surprise Index

GRAPHIC-World FX rates in 2019

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

In This Story


Other Topics

World Markets


Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the world’s largest international multimedia news provider reaching more than one billion people every day. Reuters provides trusted business, financial, national, and international news to professionals via Thomson Reuters desktops, the world's media organizations, and directly to consumers at and via Reuters TV.

Learn More