Dollar bounces from two-year lows, further weakness seen likely

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, July 28 - The dollar index bounced off a two-year low on Tuesday, but looked primed for further weakness as the United States continued to see a rise in coronavirus cases, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain very loose monetary policies.

The dollar index against a basket of currencies =USD rebounded by 0.18% to 93.71, after dropping to 93.47 on Monday, the lowest since June 2018.

With no new events driving the move, analysts said the greenback is likely consolidating before heading lower again.

“I think the market is just talking a pause, it’s been a fairly relentless dollar selloff,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.

The continued spread of coronavirus is hampering the U.S. economic recovery, while regions like Europe appear to have the virus contained.

“The global economy has been recovering from COVID somewhat unevenly, but I think the base of the recovery in places like Europe and China is looking more encouraging than in the U.S.,” said Serebriakov. “The dollar is countercyclical, so when the global economy picks up the dollar tends to weaken.”

The dollar index has fallen from a three-year peak of 102.99 in March.

The euro EUR= dipped 0.18% against the dollar to $1.1730, after reaching $1.1781 on Monday, the highest since September 2018.

U.S. Republicans and Democrats faced difficult talks on Tuesday on how best to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, after Republicans unveiled a relief proposal four days before millions of Americans lose unemployment benefits.

Ultra-loose Fed policy is also weighing on the U.S. currency, with the central bank signaling that it will keep rates near zero for years to come.

Investors will be watching to see if the Fed indicates that it will increase its purchases of longer-dated debt and whether yield caps are likely going forward when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

The dollar dipped 0.33% to 105.02 yen JPY= on Tuesday, after earlier getting as low as 105.01 yen, the weakest since March 13.

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Currency bid prices at 10:03AM (1403 GMT)

Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Previous Session

Pct Change

YTD Pct Change

High Bid

Low Bid

Euro/Dollar

EUR=

$1.1730

$1.1751

-0.18%

+4.64%

+1.1773

+1.1700

Dollar/Yen

JPY=

105.0200

105.3700

-0.33%

-3.53%

+105.6800

+105.0300

Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

123.20

123.81

-0.49%

+1.03%

+123.9800

+123.2300

Dollar/Swiss

CHF=

0.9160

0.9197

-0.40%

-5.34%

+0.9227

+0.9156

Sterling/Dollar

GBP=

1.2923

1.2881

+0.33%

-2.53%

+1.2930

+1.2839

Dollar/Canadian

CAD=

1.3389

1.3354

+0.26%

+3.10%

+1.3406

+1.3331

Australian/Dollar

AUD=

0.7150

0.7149

+0.01%

+1.82%

+0.7176

+0.7114

Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

1.0746

1.0808

-0.57%

-0.98%

+1.0827

+1.0744

Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.9077

0.9120

-0.47%

+7.35%

+0.9138

+0.9078

NZ Dollar/Dollar

NZD=

0.6657

0.6682

-0.37%

-1.17%

+0.6702

+0.6634

Dollar/Norway

NOK=

9.1135

9.0924

+0.23%

+3.82%

+9.1520

+9.0495

Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

10.6929

10.6835

+0.09%

+8.69%

+10.7195

+10.6548

Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

8.7615

8.7183

+0.11%

-6.27%

+8.7922

+8.7142

Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

10.2788

10.2671

+0.11%

-1.82%

+10.2966

+10.2584

(Editing by Marguerita Choy)

((karen.brettell@tr.com))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.