In a note, Joseph LaVorgna highlights the Federal Reserve's Labor Market Conditions Index
- Its fallen just three times from 2012 to 2015
- But in 2016 its fallen every month except for July
- And in July the annual change in the LMCI, from July 2015, turned negative
Only the eighth time in nearly 40 years the index was down on a year-over-year basis ... of the seven previous occasions "four were soon followed by recession". H says it indicates a rising possibility of recession.
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