Markets

Daily Markets: Stocks Feeling Some Pre-ECB Jitters

The European Central Bank building complex in Frankfurt, Germany
Credit: gertech / stock.adobe.com

Today’s Big Picture

Equity indices in Asia ended the day’s trading on a mostly lower note, with South Korea’s Kospi losing 0.8% and both India’s Sensex and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite was unchanged while Japan’s Nikkei added 0.9%. By mid-day trading, equity indices in Europe were modestly lower, and U.S. futures indicate a flat start to the day when those markets open later this morning.

Equities today are likely experiencing some pre-European Central Bank meeting jitters ahead of the bank’s monetary policy meeting tomorrow, September 9. Similar to what we saw ahead of the recent 2021 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in the U.S., an ECB governing council member suggested the central bank may normalize policy quicker than market expectations. That comment came after hotter than expected Eurozone inflation data, but similar to what the Fed heads did in August, that comment could be laying the groundwork for the ECB to start sharing its path to normalization. For now, we wait until tomorrow to see what ECB President Christine Lagarde has to say and how it’s received.

Housekeeping item: The next edition of Daily Markets will be published on Monday, September 13. See you soon!

Data Download

Coronavirus

Idaho has warned that some patients may not receive the level of healthcare they expect due to what is being called severe shortages of staff and hospital resources due to the latest Covid-19 patient wave. Some areas in the northern part of the state have entered a “crisis standard of care” as of September 6.

Despite rising concerns over the various coronavirus variants, more Americans took to the skies over the Labor Day long weekend than did over the Memorial Day long weekend. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported 7.3 million passengers through security checkpoints between Friday and Monday for Labor Day versus 7.1 million over the same timeframe for Memorial Day.

According to the White House, three-quarters of adults in the U.S. have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of yesterday.

International Economy

Japan’s economy grew more than expected at 0.5% QoQ in Q2 after falling a downwardly revised -1.1% (previously-0.9%) in Q1, versus expectations for a rebound to 0.4%.

Domestic Economy

Total vehicles sales in the U.S. in August dropped to 13.06 million from 14.75 million in July. This was the fourth consecutive decline since the peak of 18.5 million in April.

There were no other major domestic economic data releases yesterday. Later today we will get the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September, the JOLTs Job Openings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the usual weekly API Crude Oil stock report.

Markets

The Nasdaq Composite managed to squeeze out a wee 7 basis point gain while the rest of the indices declined. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3% and breadth was decidedly not constructive while the Russell 2000 fell 0.7% and the Dow lost 0.8%. The yield on the 10-year rose to 1.377% and the VIX rose 10.5%. The decline was aided by the news that Goldman Sachs (GS) had downgraded its economic outlook over the weekend, seeing GDP now at 5.7% in 2021, below consensus estimates for 6.2%, and lowered its Q4 estimate from 6.5% to 5.5%.

Yesterday morning bitcoin fell as much as 16% after breaking above $52,000 on Monday as El Salvador adopts the cryptocurrency as legal tender, the first country to do so.

Stocks to Watch

Before U.S. equity markets open this morning, investors will pick over a handful of quarterly earnings reports including those from Genius Sports (GENI) and Korn/Ferry (KFY).

Shares of Coinbase (COIN) are under pressure this morning after the company shared it received a Wells notice regarding possible enforcement action from the SEC related to its planned interest-earning product Coinbase Lend.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) closed higher yesterday following the company scheduling an event on September 14 at which it is widely expected to debut its latest flagship iPhone model.

Hawaiian Holdings (HA), the company behind Hawaiian Airlines, issued downside guidance for the September quarter with revenue now expected to fall 34-37% compared to vs 3Q2019 vs. its prior guidance that called for a 28%-33% drop vs. 3Q2019. This implies revenue for the quarter in the range of $475.7-498.4 million vs. the $528.2 million consensus forecast. Since providing its September quarter outlook on July 27, “the Company has experienced a deceleration in bookings that the Company attributes to the recent rise in COVID-19 cases associated with the Delta variant, as well as an increase in cancellations believed to be accelerated by the Governor of Hawai‘i's public comments suggesting that it was not a good time to visit Hawai‘i."

Genius Sports announced an expansion of its existing supplier agreement with WynnBET, the premier sports betting app from Wynn Resorts, to provide NFL official sportsbook data, content, and fan engagement solutions.

The Wall Street Journal reports activist hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. has a more than $1 billion stake in Citrix Systems (CTXS) and wants the software company to take action to boost its lagging stock price.

PayPal (PYPL) agreed to acquire Paidy, a leading two-sided payments platform and provider of buy now, pay later solutions in Japan, for ¥300 billion or approximately US$2.7 billion, principally in cash.

Amazon (AMZN) is bringing its automated checkout technology, Just Walk Out, to two Whole Foods stores that are scheduled to open next year. According to reports, one store will be located in Washington, DC, and the other in California.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) has entered into a strategic deal with Volkswagen (VLKAF) Financial Services, with plans to acquire a controlling interest of close to 75% in the car manufacturer's payments platform, operated by Volkswagen Payments SA.

The Allied Pilots Association said it is making plans to picket at major American Airlines (AAL) hubs this fall while the Southwest Airlines (LUV) pilots’ union is planning to picket over the holidays to protest overscheduling, fatigue, and a lack of hotels for crews over the summer.

And file this under “say what?” Yesterday Ford Motor (F) shared that it hired former Tesla (TSLA) and Apple executive Doug Field to lead its emerging technology efforts as part of its new plan for its Ford+ initiative.

After today’s market close, AeroVironment (AVAV), Calavo Growers (CVGW), GameStop (GME), lululemon athletica (LULU), and RH (RH) will be among those releasing their latest quarterly results. Those looking to get a jump on the earnings reports in the coming days should visit Nasdaq’s earnings calendar page.

On the Horizon

  • September 8: US JOLTs Report IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, API Crude Oil Stocks
  • September 9: weekly Jobless Claims, EIA Energy Stocks,
  • September 10: PPI, Wholesale Inventories
  • September 13: Monthly Budget Statement
  • September 14: Inflation, API Crude Oil Stocks, Apple (AAPL) annual launch event
  • September 15: Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks
  • September 16: Retail Sales, weekly Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, Net Capital Flows, Foreign Bond Investment
  • September 17: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report

Thought for the Day

“The best music is essentially there to provide you something to face the world with.” ~ Bruce Springsteen

Disclosures

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Chris Versace

Christopher (Chris) Versace is the Chief Investment Officer and thematic strategist at Tematica Research. The proprietary thematic investing framework that he’s developed over the last decade leverages changing economic, demographic, psychographic and technology landscapes to identify pronounced, multi-year structural changes. This framework sits at the heart of Tematica’s investment themes and indices and builds on his more than 25 years analyzing industries, companies and their business models as well as financial statements. Versace is the co-author of “Cocktail Investing: Distilling Everyday Noise into Clear Investing Signals” and hosts the Thematic Signals podcast. He is also an Assistant Professor at NJCU School of Business, where he developed the NJCU New Jersey 50 Index.

Read Chris's Bio

Lenore Elle Hawkins

Lenore Elle Hawkins serves as the Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research. With over 20 years of experience in finance, her focus is on macroeconomic influences that create investing headwinds or tailwinds. Lenore co-authored the book Cocktail Investing and in addition to her Tematica work, provides M&A consulting services for companies in Europe looking to expand globally. She holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from Claremont McKenna College, an MBA in Finance from the Anderson School at UCLA and is a member of the Mont Pelerin Society.

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Mark Abssy

Mark Abssy is Head of Indexing at Tematica Research focused on index and Exchange Traded Product development. He has product development and management experience with Indexes, ETFs, ETNs, Mutual Funds and listed derivatives. In his 25 year career he has held product development and management positions at NYSE|ICE, ISE ETF Ventures, Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments and Loomis Sayles. He received a BSBA from Northeastern University with a focus in Finance and International Business.

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