Crude Oil Rises in Listless Trading Session, Gold Boosted by Sinking Dollar but Still in Correction Mode
Commodities - Energy
Crude Oil Rises in Listless Trading Session
Crude Oil (WTI) - $ 82 . 12 // $0. 40 // 0. 48 %
Commentary: Crude oil ended with a gain on Monday after a seesaw session. The commodity added $0.83, or 1.02%, to settle at $82.52. There was little conviction behind the advance; instead, prices are consolidating between $80 and $83, digesting the big run from earlier this month. U.S. equity markets offered little guidance, rising a mere 0.21%, though they were up more than that for much of the day. The economic calendar was light, though it did feature the sometimes-important U.S. existing home sales figures, which showed that September sales increased to 4.53 million units from 4.12 million in the prior month. That was above the 4.25 million that was expected.
The global economic outlook remains the primary driver for crude oil and risk assets in general. While many market commentators will point to the Fed's anticipated quantitative easing in November as the catalyst for recent trading action, we believe that that is really a sideshow compared to traders' perception of the global economy. There is no doubt that the meeting will play a significant role in dictating price action immediately before and after the event, but we expect that regardless of what the outcome is, dips should be considered buying opportunities because the path of least resistance for crude oil and equities over the multi-month timeframe is higher.
Technical Outlook: P rices are testing the top of a downward-sloping channel set from the swing high set earlier this month. A turn lower from here will see the bears targeting $79.21, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 8/25-10/7 advance. Near-term resistance stands at the channel top, now at $83.08.
Commodities - Metals
Gold Boosted by Sinking Dollar but the Metal is Weakening
Gold - $ 1340 . 05 // $ 0 . 20 // 0. 01 %
Commentary: Gold maintained its inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar on Monday, advancing $11.40, or 0.86%, to settle at $1339.85, while the dollar fell 0.48% as measured by the trade-weighted Dollar Index. With the G-20 meeting passing uneventfully, trends that were already well-established resumed in aggressive fashion. One of those trends is, of course, the strong downward move in the U.S. Dollar. With the next big event risk being the Fed's second round of quantitative easing on November 3 rd , there was little support for the greenback. Naturally, gold rallied under these circumstances.
But the gold advance was not all that strong. A move less than 1% is relatively insignificant considering that the metal is now well below the all-time highs near $1387 set in mid-October. Gold is now in correction mode, or at the very least, in a topping process. More and more traders are seeing rallies as selling opportunities, thus we may see the gold-dollar correlation breakdown temporarily while the froth in gold unwinds.
For those that choose to get involved with gold, be sure to have an exit strategy in case prices go against your position. Risk management is critical regardless of whether you are long or short.
Technical Outlook: Prices are testing the top of a falling channel set from this month's swing high, with a break higher exposing horizontal resistance at $1361.25. A turn lower sees support at $1332.99, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 7/28-10/14 advance, followed by a rising trend line now at $1317.89.
Silver - $23.63 // $0.03 // 0.11%
Commentary: Silver rose $0.36, or 1.56%, on Monday to settle at $23.65. The one-month correlation between gold and silver is at 0.9, still extremely high, but down from the near-perfect correlation for much of October. Regardless, as gold goes so expect silver to go. Thus if gold is in correction mode and heading lower from here, we would expect the same from silver.
The gold/silver ratio stands at 56.8, near recent lows and the same levels as August 2008. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative performance of gold and silver. A higher number indicates gold outperformance, while a lower number indicates silver outperformance).
Technical Outlook: As with gold, prices are testing the top of a falling channel set from October's swing high, with a break higher exposing the $24.00 figure. Support lines up at a rising trend line established from late August, now at $23.28.
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