Crude Oil Rises on Bargain Buying, Gold’s Fate In the Hands of Investors

A very interesting week with regard to commodities saw crude oil inventories surge to levels just shy of 10-year highs and gold ETF holdings plummet 500,000 troy ounces. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for both commodities is highly uncertain.

Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil Rises on Bargain Buying

Crude Oil (WTI) $78.12 -$0.24 -0.28%

Commentary : Oil rose $1.37, or 1.78% on Thursday, as traders used the recent sell-off as an opportunity to buy. After the bearish inventory report on Wednesday, prices may find it hard to advance further. A bit of consolidation is possible under the recent double top resistance area. In the event next week's report is bullish or at the very least neutral, prices should approach $80; but that remains to be seen.

Technical Outlook: Prices found support at $75.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/20-6/28 upswing. Near-term resistance lines up in the $79.38-80.00 region, with a break above that exposing top of a rising channel established since May, now at $81.95.


Commodities - Metals

Gold's Fate In the Hands of Investors

Gold $1166.73 -$1.52 -0.13%

Commentary: Gold rebounded for the second day on Thursday, rising $4.65, or 0.40%. The big story in gold continues to be the liquidation by gold ETF investors. The fate of gold prices rests in the hands of these investors. Should liquidation continue, look for continued losses. Otherwise, prices could rebound a bit. We are leaning toward the continued liquidation scenario, but remain on the sidelines rather than short.

Technical Outlook: Prices pulled up from support at the bottom of a falling channel established from the swing high in June to re-test the $1170.00 figure. Continued buying opens the door for a re-test of support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from the low in February, now at $1192.01.

Silver $17.60 +$0.00 +0.00%

Commentary: Silver bounced on the back or rising gold prices, increasing $0.13, or 0.74%. As gold goes, so goes silver.

Technical Outlook: Unchanged: "Prices continue to consolidate within a descending triangle chart formation above support at $17.45. This setup is typically a continuation pattern, hinting further gains ahead. That said, it also carries a negative connotation and may hint at an emerging bearish bias. A break below support exposes at the $17.00 figure, while a rebound sees initial resistance at $18.57."


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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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