Markets

Contango Report: Backwardation Fuels UNG

Featured Commodity

  • WTI Crude
  • Brent Crude
  • Natural Gas
  • Agricultural Commodities

    • Corn
    • Wheat
    • Soybeans
    • Live Cattle
    • Lean Hogs

    Precious Metals

    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium

    Soft Commodities

    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Sugar
    • Cotton

    Industrial Metals

    • Copper
    • Aluminum
    • Zinc
    • Lead
    • Nickel
    • Tin

    Current Roll Previous Week's Roll Past Year Average Roll Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll
    Energy WTI 3.98% 5.49% 0.30% 8.51%
    Brent -8.56% -10.19% -0.57% 3.98%
    HH Natural Gas -4.56% -2.55% 3.03% 10.57%
    Precious Metals Gold 0.99% 0.79% 0.12% 1.29%
    Silver 1.12% 0.07% 0.12% 1.45%
    Platinum -4.04% -3.31% 0.25% -0.42%
    Palladium 0.70% 0.45% 0.24% 1.46%
    Industrial Metals Copper 0.32% -0.23% -0.00% -1.12%
    Aluminum 9.47% 9.08% 0.55% 5.48%
    Zinc 0.98% -0.64% 0.12% 4.65%
    Lead 2.56% 1.29% 0.21% 3.77%
    Nickel 1.29% 1.35% 0.09% 1.83%
    Tin 0.19% 0.64% 0.07% 0.56%
    Agricultural Commodities Corn -13.48% 0.13% -1.01% 4.53%
    Wheat 3.07% 7.25% 2.70% 16.63%
    Soybeans -28.55% -15.23% 0.10% -24.21%
    Live Cattle 28.88% 21.95% 0.88% 34.23%
    Lean Hogs -63.29% -54.36% 0.75% -39.58%
    Soft Commodities Coffee C 5.17% 8.01% 1.00% 7.00%
    Cocoa 2.70% 2.96% 1.01% 2.74%
    Sugar #11 0.40% 5.12% -2.13% 9.39%
    Cotton #2 9.14% 9.24% -0.47% 4.13%

    Energy

    WTI loading charts...

    WTI

    Current Annualized Cost

    3.98%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    5.49%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    8.51%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCWTI

    CONTANGO WATCH: WTI is in contango through most of the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS:The front-month roll fell slightly to 3.98 percent annualized from 5.49 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

    Brent loading charts...

    Brent

    Current Annualized Cost

    -8.56%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -10.19%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    3.98%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCBrent

    CONTANGO WATCH: Brent's backwardation narrowed slightly last week.

    ROLL COSTS: Investors net 8.56 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts, down from a net of 10.19 percent

    BOTTOM LINE:Backwardation

    HH Natural Gas loading charts...

    HH

    Current Annualized Cost

    -4.56%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -2.55%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    10.57%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCHH

    CONTANGO WATCH: Natural gas remained in backwardation for a third week amid scorching summer temperatures across the United States.

    ROLL COSTS: Investors net 4.56 percent annualized from rolling front-month natural gas contracts.

    BOTTOM LINE:Backwardation

    Precious Metals

    Gold loading charts...

    Gold

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.99%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    0.79%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    1.29%

    Contract Months:

    Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

    RCGold

    CONTANGO WATCH: Gold is in mild contango.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.99 percent annualized to roll front-month gold contracts, up slightly from 0.79 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Silver loading charts...

    Silver

    Current Annualized Cost

    1.12%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    0.07%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    1.45%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Mar May Jul Sep Dec

    RCSilver

    CONTANGO WATCH: Silver is in mild contango throughout most of the forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.12 percent annualized to roll front-month silver contracts, up from 0.07 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Platinum loading charts...

    Platin

    Current Annualized Cost

    -4.04%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -3.31%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    -0.42%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Apr Jul Oct

    RCPlatin

    CONTANGO WATCH: Platinum is in backwardation at the very front end of the forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS :Investors net 4.04 percent annualized from rolling front-month platinum contracts, up from 3.31 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Backwardation to Contango

    Palladium loading charts...

    Pallad

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.70%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    0.45%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    1.46%

    Contract Months:

    Mar Jun Sep Dec

    RCPallad

    CONTANGO WATCH: Palladium is in mild contango.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.7 percent annualized to roll front-month palladium contracts, up from 0.45 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Industrial Metals

    Copper loading charts...

    Copper

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.32%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -0.23%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    -1.12%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCCopper

    CONTANGO WATCH: Copper is in mild contango at the very front end of the curve and mild backwardation thereafter.

    ROLL COSTS :It costs investors 0.32 percent annualized to roll front-month copper contracts, up from a net of 0.23 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango To Mild Backwardation

    Aluminum loading charts...

    Alum

    Current Annualized Cost

    9.47%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    9.08%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    5.48%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCAlum

    CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve is in steady contango.

    ROLL COSTS: Front-month annualized roll costs moved up to 9.47 percent from 9.08 percent the week before.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

    Zinc loading charts...

    Zinc

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.98%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -0.64%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    4.65%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCZinc

    CONTANGO WATCH: Zinc is in mild contango across the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.98 percent annualized to roll front-month zinc contracts, up from a net of 0.64 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Lead loading charts...

    Lead

    Current Annualized Cost

    2.56%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    1.29%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    3.77%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCLead

    CONTANGO WATCH: Lead is in contango across the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.56 percent annualized to roll front-month lead contracts, up from 1.29 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

    Nickel loading charts...

    Nickel

    Current Annualized Cost

    1.29%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    1.35%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    1.83%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCNickel

    CONTANGO WATCH: Nickel is in mild contango throughout the forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: Roll costs for nickel edged down to 1.29 percent from 1.35 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Tin loading charts...

    Tin

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.19%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    0.64%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    0.56%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCTin

    CONTANGO WATCH: The tin forward curve is in mild contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.19 percent annualized to roll front-month tin contracts, down from a cost of 0.64 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Agricultural Commodities

    Corn loading charts...

    Corn

    Current Annualized Cost

    -13.48%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    0.13%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    4.53%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    RCCorn

    CONTANGO WATCH: Corn moved into backwardation as prices surged to record highs last week.

    ROLL COSTS: Investors net 13.48 percent annualized from rolling front-month corn contracts, up from a cost of 0.13 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Backwardation

    Wheat loading charts...

    Wheat

    Current Annualized Cost

    3.07%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    7.25%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    16.63%

    Contract Months:

    Mar May Jul Sep Dec

    RCWheat

    CONTANGO WATCH: Wheat's contango narrowed last week.

    ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs fell to 3.07 percent from 7.25 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

    Soybeans loading charts...

    SoyB

    Current Annualized Cost

    -28.55%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -15.23%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    -24.21%

    Contract Months:

    Jan Mar May Jul Aug Sep Nov

    RCSoyB

    CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans' backwardation widened as prices hit a new record high last week.

    ROLL COSTS: Investors net 28.55 percent annualized from rolling front-month soybeans contracts, up from 15.23 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Steep Backwardation

    Live Cattle loading charts...

    LiveC

    Current Annualized Cost

    28.88%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    21.95%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    34.23%

    Contract Months:

    Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

    RCLiveC

    CONTANGO WATCH: Live cattle curve is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 28.88 percent annualized to roll front-month live cattle contracts, up from 21.95 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Steep Contango

    Lean Hogs loading charts...

    LeanH

    Current Annualized Cost

    -63.29%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    -54.36%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    -39.58%

    Contract Months:

    Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec

    RCLeanH

    CONTANGO WATCH: The front half of the lean hogs forward curve is in steep backwardation.

    ROLL COSTS: Investors net 63.29 percent annualized from rolling front-month lean hogs contracts, up from a bet of 54.36 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Steep Backwardation to Contango

    Soft Commodities

    Coffee C loading charts...

    Coffee

    Current Annualized Cost

    5.17%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    8.01%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    7.00%

    Contract Months:

    Mar May Jul Sep Dec

    RCCoffee

    CONTANGO WATCH: Coffee is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: Annualized front-month roll costs fell to 5.17 percent from 8.01 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

    Cocoa loading charts...

    Cocoa

    Current Annualized Cost

    2.70%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    2.96%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    2.74%

    Contract Months:

    Mar May Jul Sep Dec

    RCCocoa

    CONTANGO WATCH: Cocoa is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.70 percent to roll front-month cocoa contracts, down slightly from 2.96 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango

    Sugar #11 loading charts...

    Sugar

    Current Annualized Cost

    0.40%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    5.12%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    9.39%

    Contract Months:

    Mar May Jul Oct

    RCSugar

    CONTANGO WATCH: Sugar is in contango at the front end of the curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.40 percent annualized to roll front-month sugar contracts, down from a cost of 5.12 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Mild Contango to Backwardation

    Cotton #2 loading charts...

    Cotton

    Current Annualized Cost

    9.14%

    Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous

    9.24%

    Historical 07/20 5YR Annualized Roll

    4.13%

    Contract Months:

    Mar May Jul Oct Dec

    RCCotton

    CONTANGO WATCH: Cotton is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

    ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 9.14 percent annualized to roll front-month cotton contracts, down from 9.24 percent.

    BOTTOM LINE:Contango

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    The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


    The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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