Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season -

Talking Points:

  • Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
  • Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
  • Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.

A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday's performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.

Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.

How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets ? See our forecast here !

Asia Session

23:50 JPY BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB) 2434.9b 2032.3b 520.8b
23:50 JPY BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB) 1733.5b 1571.9b 1492.4b
23:50 JPY Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB) 425.2b 429.7b -411.0b
00:15 USD Fed's George Speaks on US Economy - - -
04:30 JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR) -13.15% - 4.47%
06:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR) 45.4 45.5 44.6
06:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR) 46.7 48.3 48.2

European Session

05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (MAR) 3.6% (A) 3.7% Low
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate SA (MAR) 3.5% (A) 3.4% Low
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (FEB) 20.3b (A) 13.4b Low
06:00 EUR German Current Account Balance (FEB) 20.0b (A) 14.3b Low
06:00 EUR German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB) 1.3% (A) -0.6% Low
06:00 EUR German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB) 0.4% (A) 1.3% Low
07:15 CHF CPI (MoM) (MAR) 0.3% 0.2% Medium
07:15 CHF CPI (YoY) (MAR) -0.9% -0.8% Medium
07:15 CHF CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR) 0.3% 0.2% Low
07:15 CHF CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR) -1.1% -0.9% Low
08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) 0.1% 0.3% Medium
08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) 0.0% 0.2% Medium
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) -0.2% 0.7% Low
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) -0.7% -0.1% Low
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB) -£10200 -£10289 Medium
08:30 GBP Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB) -£2500 -£2199 Low

Critical Levels

CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3
EUR/USD 1.1158 1.1274 1.1326 1.1390 1.1442 1.1506 1.1622
GBP/USD 1.3871 1.3979 1.4018 1.4087 1.4126 1.4195 1.4303

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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