Cintas Corporation stock (NASDAQ: CTAS) has gained 3% in the past week and currently trades at $403 per share. Additionally, Cintas, a manufacturer and provider of uniforms, mats, mops, cleaning and restroom supplies, has seen its stock gain more than 13% over the last six months, rising from $350. The company’s recent Q1 2022 earnings reported in late September (Cintas’ fiscal year ends in May) saw revenue rise from $1.75 billion in Q1 ’21 to $1.9 billion in Q1 ’22. Further, expenses rose at a slower rate, which helped drive operating income up from $350 million in Q1 ’21 to $394 million in Q1 ’22.
Now, after the recent rally, will Cintas stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for Cintas stock average 2.6% (implying an increase in stock price from $403 to $413) in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 2.8% rise over the previous week (five trading days).
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Cintas stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Cintas stock price forecast after a rise or fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day. For additional details about Cintas historical returns, and return comparison to peers see Cintas (CTAS) Stock Return.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
If Cintas stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days CTAS stock moves an average of 3.4%, with a decent 60.6% probability of a positive return over this period.
Also, given a -5% movement for the stock over five trading days, it has historically witnessed an excess return of 2.4% compared to the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with a decent 61.1% probability of a positive excess return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Cintas Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the price forecast for Cintas stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Cintas stock drops by 5% or more in a week
Case 2: Cintas stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Cintas stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
Cintas stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 4.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 3.8% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $419.63 in Case 1 and a figure of $418.09 in Case 2 using Cintas market price of $402.96 on 10/12/2021.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Cintas stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Cintas stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For Cintas stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Cintas after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Cintas stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.