China's yuan, bonds temper rally as markets await trade, policy certainty
By Andrew Galbraith
SHANGHAI, Nov 6 (Reuters) - China's yuan and government debt futures rose on Wednesday, a day after a surge of optimism around trade talks between China and the United States pushed the local currency to three-month highs and a medium-term rate cut boosted bonds.
But the moves on the day were restrained, suggesting that investors are waiting on further developments on trade talks, as well as more clarity on policy easing, analysts say.
The onshore spot yuan CNY=CFXS opened at 6.9967 per dollar and spent the day hovering around the psychologically important 7-per-dollar level. It finished the trading session at 6.9987 per dollar, its strongest such close since Aug. 2.
The rise in the onshore yuan on Wednesday came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set its daily reference rate for the currency's trading band CNY=PBOC at 7.0080, its strongest level since Aug. 8.
In offshore trade CNH=D3, the yuan flickered between small gains and losses throughout the trading day. It was last changing hands at 6.9981 per dollar, stronger than the previous day's close of 7.0017.
Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong, said the yuan's ability to sustain a break through the 7-per-dollar level remains to be seen.
"In light of upbeat expectation for the phase one deal, the CNH and CNY will likely on and off trade below 7 handle, suggesting that the CNY of 7 level is no longer the key resistance level," he said in a note, adding that 6.98-per-dollar is a "more critical level to watch."
Chinese and global markets took on a risk-on tone this week on growing signs that Washington and Beijing were edging closer to sealing a preliminary trade pact to roll back their bruising 16-month long tariff war.
People familiar with the negotiations have told Reuters that China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove the Sept. 1 tariffs as part of a "phase one" U.S.-China trade deal,
The optimism around a trade deal lifted the yuan on Tuesday despite the PBOC cutting the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans, a closely watched policy lending rate, by five basis points.
Market observers saw the small cut in the one-year MLF rate as a salve for the onshore bond market, which has been hit by a selloff in recent months amid worries that relatively high consumer inflation impeded Beijing's ability to ease policy despite slowing domestic growth and the protracted trade war.
Chinese 10-year Treasury futures for December delivery CFTZ9, the most-traded contract, edged up 0.09%. They had jumped 0.35% the previous day following the MLF cut.
The yield on China's benchmark 10-year treasury bonds CN10YT=RR had risen nearly 30 basis points from September lows before the PBOC's latest MLF cut. The bonds yielded 3.264% on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data, down about 4 basis points from Monday, before the cut was announced.
A trader at an Asian bank in Shanghai said the rally in Chinese government bonds on Tuesday did not mean the market has shed its cautious stance.
"The (MLF) cut was outside of market expectations, and the fall in yields yesterday mainly reflected short covering. The market is paying attention to whether there will be a cut in open market operation rates or the Loan Prime Rate," she said.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch cautioned that the MLF cut, and a likely reduction in the central bank's benchmark Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in November would have a limited impact.
The LPR is linked to the MLF rate and is set on the 20th of each month.
"The actual impact on driving down bank loan pricing and servicing the government mandate of lowering funding cost for corporates is likely to be quite limited. After all, the lower LPR only applies to the new loans, but the pricing of the existing loans is still based on the benchmark interest rates," they said.
China's equity markets, which had risen for three consecutive sessions on the buoyant mood around trade talks, stepped back on Wednesday.
The country's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gave up early gains to end the day down 0.43%. The blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 lost 0.45%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI was barely changed, up just 0.02%, while Hong Kong-listed H-shares .HSCE finished 0.15% lower.
China's onshore yuanhttps://tmsnrt.rs/2NnJuKi
(Reporting by Andrew Galbraith Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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