By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, May 22 (Reuters) - Central Europe's main currencies eased slightly on Wednesday as global trade tensions weighed on risk appetite, although a jump in Polish industrial output gave the zloty brief respite.
Assets in the region were largely rangebound as emerging markets moved in line with the neighbouring euro zone EUR=, with the forint EURHUF= and the zloty EURPLN= easing slightly against the euro by 0856 GMT.
The zloty briefly regained some ground after April data showed a robust 9.2 percent annual rise in Polish industrial output and an unexpected slight pick-up in producer prices.
Data released in recent weeks indicates that robust economic growth continues, but central banks show no signs that they will increase interest rates to fight accelerating inflation.
There is no need to change Polish interest rates in 2019, but a rise in 2020 cannot be ruled out, Polish rate-setter Rafal Sura said after Wednesday's figures.
"For those members of the (Monetary Policy) Council who are worried by accelerating inflation... the very good data on industrial production will be an impulse to think about rate hikes," said Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy.
"It is unlikely, however, that there will be a majority in the Council that would vote in favour of such a proposal," she added.
Polish government bond yields, instead of rising after the strong figures, tracked a mild drop in Bunds.
While Poland's inflation ran well within the central bank's 1.5-3.5% target range in April, Hungary's 3.9% figure was near the top of the National Bank of Hungary's 2-4% range.
The forint weakened to 9-month lows against the euro in the past few sessions as the bank is not expected to tighten policy at its meeting on May 28, nor possibly at its June meeting, market participants have said.
Resistance at 327.6 against the euro gave some relief to the currency, which may be temporary.
"Given the fundamentals, with strong growth and rising inflation, with a neutral or mildly negative global backdrop, the forint is where it should be," one Budapest-based dealer said.
"This is not a definite risk off mood, I would rather say investors handle emerging market assets cautiously. Why should they buy the forint now?... while they have no reason for a strong sell-off either," the dealer added.
CEE MARKETSSNAPSHOTAT 1056 CETCURRENCIESLatest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2019 Czech crown EURCZK= 25.781025.7860+0.02%-0.29%Hungary forint EURHUF= 326.6500326.5000-0.05%-1.70%Polish zloty EURPLN= 4.30944.3075-0.04%-0.46%Romanian leu EURRON= 4.76304.7650+0.04%-2.29%Croatian kuna EURHRK= 7.42407.4270+0.04%-0.19%Serbian dinar EURRSD= 117.8600117.9400+0.07%+0.37%Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CETLatest Previous Daily Change close change in 2019 Prague .PX 1043.511048.3300-0.46%+5.77%Budapest .BUX 39961.4239575.98+0.97%+2.10%Warsaw .WIG20 2189.702190.93-0.06%-3.82%Bucharest .BETI 8104.488152.63-0.59%+9.76%Ljubljana .SBITOP 859.50859.62-0.01%+6.87%Zagreb .CRBEX 1858.381858.22+0.01%+6.27%Belgrade .BELEX15 730.73733.09-0.32%-4.06%Sofia .SOFIX 571.31568.83+0.44%-3.89%BONDSYield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech Republic spread 2-year CZ2YT=RR 1.72800.0900+234bps +8bps 5-year CZ5YT=RR 1.70900.0420+220bps +5bps 10-year CZ10YT=RR 1.8400-0.0010+191bps +1bps Poland 2-year PL2YT=RR 1.69800.0130+231bps +1bps 5-year PL5YT=RR 2.2550-0.1400+275bps -14bps 10-year PL10YT=RR 2.8930-0.0250+297bps -1bps FORWARDRATEAGREEMENT3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep CZKFRAPRIBOR= 2.222.202.162.20Hungary HUFFRABUBOR= 0.400.580.760.00Poland PLNFRAWIBOR= 1.741.751.761.72Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices **************************************************************(Additional reporting by Warsaw newsroom; Editing by Alexander Smith) ((sandor.peto@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 1 327 4744)(Reuters Messaging: sandor.peto.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) |
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