CEE MARKETS-Stocks slip, FX drift as surge in COVID-19 cases stays in focus

Credit: REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

Central European currencies fell into a holding pattern just off recent lows on Monday while stocks eased, as the surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe blurred economic outlooks.

PRAGUE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Central European currencies fell into a holding pattern just off recent lows on Monday while stocks eased, as the surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe blurred economic outlooks.

Czech consumer confidence fell the second most in October, according to a regular statistics office survey, although the crown EURCZK= took the data somewhat in stride, with markets keeping an eye out for preliminary third-quarter growth data due on Friday.

The crown was down less than 0.1% at 27.265 per euro by 1021 GMT, fluctuating away from a near five-month low hit earlier in October. One dealer said investors were also waiting for clarity from the U.S. presidential election.

"Local data is not good but the long (euro) position is already a crowded trade so that's why it has calmed down a bit," the dealer said.

Record daily tallies of new coronavirus infections around Europe and also in the United States have fuelled investor concern. Stock markets fell with global peers on Monday, with Warsaw .WIG20 down 0.7% and Prague .PX off 0.3%.

The Czech infection rate over a two-week period is currently the highest in Europe on a per capita basis while central European neighbours have also seen rising infection levels. New restrictions will impact fourth-quarter economic activity.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= led currency losses, ticking down 0.15% to 4.5825 to the euro.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= has approached lows last touched in early April at the height of the initial wave of the coronavirus pandemic. It traded up marginally at 365.30 on Monday morning.

"We cannot see what could stop the euro versus forint exchange rate in the short term," Erste Bank said. "There has not been a significant tightening by the central bank, and the resistance level is around 370."

Hungary's central bank kept the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday, two days after it kept benchmark interest rates on hold at a regular policy meeting.

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1121 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

bid

close

change

in 2020

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

27.2650

27.2565

-0.03%

-6.72%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

365.3000

365.4400

+0.04%

-9.35%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.5825

4.5755

-0.15%

-7.12%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.8725

4.8742

+0.03%

-1.73%

EURHRK=

Croatian kuna

EURHRK=

7.5810

7.5775

-0.05%

-1.79%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.5000

117.6000

+0.09%

+0.06%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

close

change

in 2020

.PX

Prague

.PX

860.50

863.1000

-0.30%

-22.87%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

33634.36

33655.10

-0.06%

-27.01%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

1634.14

1645.32

-0.68%

-24.00%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

8698.57

8795.07

-1.10%

-12.82%

.SBITOP

Ljubljana

.SBITOP

819.10

823.67

-0.55%

-11.53%

.CRBEX

Zagreb

.CRBEX

1598.30

1600.71

-0.15%

-20.78%

.BELEX15

Belgrade

.BELEX15

688.49

692.85

-0.63%

-14.12%

.SOFIX

Sofia

.SOFIX

427.15

427.07

+0.02%

-24.82%

BONDS

Yield

Yield

Spread

Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic

spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

0.0580

0.0870

+082bps

+9bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

0.5820

-0.0020

+136bps

+0bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

1.0110

0.0050

+159bps

+1bps

Poland

PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

-0.0260

-0.0350

+074bps

-3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

0.4780

-0.0230

+125bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

1.2230

-0.0210

+180bps

-2bps

FRA

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

0.28

0.25

0.26

0.35

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

0.94

0.97

1.00

0.77

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

0.17

0.14

0.13

0.22

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

**************************************************************

(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Anita Komuves in Budapest)

((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com; +420 234 721 613;))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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