Can TripAdvisor Cross $2 Billion In Revenues By Fiscal 2020?

TripAdvisor ( TRIP ) has delivered a solid performance so far this year, driven by a turnaround in its Hotel business and solid demand for its Non-Hotel business, particularly the Restaurants and Experiences segment. In the first nine months of 2018, the company's revenues grew 3% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $1.3 billion. In addition, the company's adjusted EBITDA grew 25% during this period, largely due to increased investments, notably to enhance technological capabilities in order to improve customer engagement.

TripAdvisor has experienced a more than 50% surge in its stock price in 2018. We have maintained our price estimate for TripAdvisor at $64 , which is almost 15% ahead of the current market price. In our interactive dashboard How Will TripAdvisor Cross $2 Billion Within The Next Three Years? we detail a scenario in which the company could reach $2 billion in revenues by fiscal 2020. Below we detail this scenario further.

TripAdvisor has two reportable segments: Hotel and Non-Hotel. The Hotel segment accounts for almost 80% of the company's revenues. The company's revenues declined moderately in its core hotel-booking segment, even as profitability spiked in the division in the first nine months of fiscal 2018. However, the company's management expects that the hotel business will return to growth in Q4 following several consecutive quarters of declines, largely on the back of its lower cost base and more restrained spending. Overall, we expect TripAdvisor's Hotel revenues to decline for full-year fiscal 2018. However, the segment's revenues should rebound over the long run as the company is focusing on three major areas - brand advertising, product experience, and marketing mix. Going forward, we forecast the Hotel segment to generate about $1.2 billion in revenues in 2019 and a 2% y-o-y increase thereafter in revenues in fiscal 2020 - from Click-Based and Transaction revenues, Display-Based Advertising and Subscription revenue, and Other Hotel revenues. The company has witnessed increased visitors (or hotel shoppers) on its primary website over recent years, where direct suppliers and Online Travel Agencies (OTA) place their advertisements.

Our bull case for a $2 billion revenue growth in fiscal 2020 assumes that TripAdvisor's unique visitors could reach $2.2 billion, from an estimated 1.9 billion. We have assumed the company's Display-based advertising and other revenues to remain constant in this scenario. Further, we have also assumed that the revenue per hotel shopper to remain at $0.40, instead of an estimated $0.39 in fiscal 2020.

TripAdvisor's Non-Hotel segment is broken down into Experiences, Restaurants, and Rentals. In the first nine months of fiscal 2018, the segment's revenue jumped 25% to $350 million. The segment has been profitable, but is still substantially in growth mode as management focuses on adding to its portfolio of bookable products in hopes of capturing a dominant position in this high-growth market. We have estimated TripAdvisor's Non-Hotel Revenues to grow to $660 million in 2020, up from an estimated $620 million, in order for the company to reach $2 billion in total revenues. This can be achieved if the company continues to capitalize on the significant supply and demand advantages in the Non-Hotel offerings and remains focused on driving market share gains in the segment. It should also be noted that TripAdvisor plans to globally expand its platform by using Viator's tech base to support multiple languages and points of sale. Overall the company's investments in long-term core growth initiatives should drive solid growth in TripAdvisor's revenues going forward.

What's behind Trefis? See How it's Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs

For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams

More Trefis Research

Like our charts? Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.