Credit: REUTERS/DADO RUVICJuly 27 (Reuters) - USD/JPY slid hard on Monday but the dollar could win a modest temporary reprieve if it managed to close above 105.20/15.
That area marks the 61.8% Fibo of March's massive 101.18-111.71 rebound and March 16 pullback low support and holding it could spark a corrective rebound to 106.20 .
But the dollar remained under pressure over U.S. pandemic trends , fiscal and Fed support and Chinese relations, and bearish longer-term technicals -- all of which should limit any gains.
A close below 105 would reinforce bearish weekly and monthly charts that suggest a slide into the 104.00s, where three 2018 and 2019 breakdowns were reversed. The 2018 low is at 104.10 and the A=C wave measured objective off 111.71 and 109.85 swing highs from March and June at 104.12 are prime targets.
If the fiscal response falls short and the economy suffers, the Fed may be forced in September to increase already massive accommodation, further undermining the dollar and U.S. rates, with 10-year Treasury-JGB yield spreads now near April's 30-year low.
Escalating U.S.-China sanctions are adding to demand for havens like the yen and gold.
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(Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
((Randolph.donney@thomsonreuters.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
