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BUZZ-COMMENT-EUR/USD at risk of more losses even after bounce

Credit: REUTERS/Thomas White

EUR/USD rebounded from two-week lows on Friday, potentially shaking out weak short positions, but risks from the U.S. economic recovery, COVID, Brexit and inflation could lead to a resumption of losses.

Oct 16 (Reuters) - EUR/USD rebounded from two-week lows on Friday, potentially shaking out weak short positions, but risks from the U.S. economic recovery, COVID, Brexit and inflation could lead to a resumption of losses.

A big upside surprise in September U.S. retail sales drove Treasury yields and the dollar higher. The data suggested the U.S. economy could outpace the euro zone recovery, which faces risks from tighter pandemic restrictions .

The sales data could make agreement on a U.S. stimulus deal or additional Fed accommodation less likely, which has helped buoy U.S. rates and widened German-U.S. spreads further in the dollar's favor.

Brexit uncertainty remains a downside risk to EUR/USD after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it was now time to prepare for a no-trade deal exit .

Diminishing inflation expectations should maintain downside risks. Euro zone 5-year/5-year inflation linked swaps EUIL5YF5Y=R are trading at 3-month lows and showing no signs of reversing that trend.

Techs highlight downside risks. EUR/USD is consolidating its fall from the Oct. 9 peak and a monthly gravestone doji has formed.

Tests of the September monthly low or even 1.1485/95 support could be possible.

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eur/usdhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3o57Gl1

DEM/USDhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3k3qs9K

eur/infhttps://tmsnrt.rs/353AkKz

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((christopher.romano@thomsonreuters.com;))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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