US Markets

BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar falling because traders don't see a crisis

Credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY

The dollar is falling because traders don't see a crisis. That's what is so different about today's markets and those in 2008.

July 29 (Reuters) - The dollar is falling because traders don't see a crisis. That's what is so different about today's markets and those in 2008.

Myriad risks have been met with huge stimulus and lots of bad news has not led to a crisis. Instead, it's fuelled stock rallies and commodity booms.

That those rallies are flawed from their beginning is cause to fear bubbles, and bubbles burst with a resulting crisis, leading to a big dollar rise.

But that's not the situation today. Traders are being encouraged to gamble by stocks and commodities. They are betting against the dollar and in a fashion acting prudently by buying currencies perceived safe, such as the euro and yen.

That's fine if no crisis exists. In a crisis, though, the dollar as the world's reserve currency will rise. The dollar's position as a reserve currency has actually grown, not fallen. There is no real alternative.

The bigger the bet against the dollar, the greater it will rise if risk aversion results in crisis.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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