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BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar basing vs yen, but upside may be limited pre-Fed, BOJ

Credit: REUTERS/KAI PFAFFENBACH

USD/JPY rose slightly on Thursday after again holding just above key support at 107.77 [nL1N2MF1BC], with the dollar gaining after U.S. data and the ECB meeting but constrained ahead of next week's Fed and BOJ gatherings.

April 22 (Reuters) - USD/JPY rose slightly on Thursday after again holding just above key support at 107.77 , with the dollar gaining after U.S. data and the ECB meeting but constrained ahead of next week's Fed and BOJ gatherings.

There's room for a rebound while above the 38.2% Fibo of 2021's recovery at 107.77, but resistance from falling moving averages, the tenkan and kijun lines and the down trend-line across April 5 and 13 highs is making it difficult to retake the broken 23.6% Fibo at 109.

USD/JPY is highly positively correlated to the dollar index, which is also recovering from this month's tumble to the 61.8% Fibo of this year's recovery, possibly with room to retrace more .

Claims and Chicago Fed data extended the run of mostly better-than-forecast U.S. data this month. Even though existing home sales unexpectedly fell , they remain above the post-GFC and pre-pandemic peak, constrained by tight supplies and surging prices.

Neither the Fed nor the BOJ are expected to make substantive policy changes next week, but the current $6.68bln net spec USD/JPY long position remains a weight unless Treasury yields resume Q1's advance.

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Charthttps://tmsnrt.rs/3sIxEeU

(Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

((Randolph.donney@thomsonreuters.com))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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