Bullishness Erased by Weak Eco Data

Optimism brought about by US' debt ceiling limit deal proved to be short-lived as disappointing PMI data across the globe raised concerns over global economic slowdown. After rising earlier in the day, Wall Street ended the day in red with DJIA and S&P 500 losing -0.09% and -0.43% respectively. In the commodity sector, oil prices traded with high volatility, rising initially but reversing gains sharply after the US ISM manufacturing index missed expectations. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil rallied to as high as 98.6 before plunging to a 1-monht high of 93.42 and ending the day at 94.89, down -0.85%, while the equivalent Brent crude contract jumped above 120 for the first time since June 14 before slipping to 114.78 and settling flat at 116.81. Gold declined earlier in the day as risk appetite increased after the agreement of raising the debt ceiling was reached. Price rebounded as weak economic data and widening in European peripheral yield spreads raised demand for safe-haven assets again. The benchmark Comex contract settled at 1621.7, down -0.58%.

The House voted 269-161 for the plan to raise the US debt ceiling by at least 2.1 trillion and cut government spending by 2.4 trillion or more. The measure now awaits a final vote in the Senate. Now that a default is avoided but US debt ratings remain vulnerable to downgrades as the country still lacks a credible plan to reduce deficits in the long-term.

US' ISM manufacturing index fell much more than anticipated, by -4.4 points, to 50.9, the lowest level since July 2009, as nearly every component declined. It's likely that the index will fall below 50 (a reading below 50 signals contraction) in coming months unless economic conditions improve. Elsewhere in the UK, manufacturing PMI plunged to 49.1 in July from an upwardly revised 51.4 in June. This was the first time since September 2009 that UK's manufacturing sector fell in the contraction territory. The final estimate of Eurozone's manufacturing PMI stayed unchanged at 50.4 in July. However, the reading for Germany was revised down -0.1 point to 52. In peripheral countries, the Spanish PMI declined for the 5th consecutive month to 45.6 from 47.3 while Italian PMI edged higher to 50.1 from 49.9. China's manufacturing PMI eased to 50.7 in July from 50.9 in the prior month. The market had expected a deeper slowdown to 50.2. Similar data compiled by HSBC showed a drop to 49.3 in July from 50.1 in June. A reading below 50 signaled contraction in manufacturing activities.

In Asia today, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. The decision was in line with the consensus while some analysts had anticipated a rate hike given the strong-than-expected inflation report released last week. On the dataflow, Switzerland's SVME PMI probably fell -0.9 points to 52.5 in July while UK's construction PMI dipped -0.5 points to 53.1. In the Eurozone, PPI might have climbed +0.1% m/m in June after contracting -0.2% a month ago. For a year ago, PPI probably rose to +5.9%, easing from +6.2% in May. In the US, personal spending probably grew +0.2% in June after staying flat in May, while personal income rose +0.2% in June, easing from +0.3% in May.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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