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Bull of the Day: Tyler Tech (TYL) - Bull of the Day

Let's face it, consumers in America are especially finicky. What's the hot thing today is old news tomorrow. Tastes and trends change as fast as Chicago weather. That's why subscription-based business models are appealing to many investors. Subscriptions are what I like to call "sticky money." If you've already signed up for a monthly service, you basically have checked that off your list and you're on to the next item. And how many people go back and cancel subscriptions in a timely fashion? Some do, but most don't.

That's subscription service in the world of the individual consumer. Now imagine the slow moving world of municipalities. All their red tape, bureaucracy, and things that frustrate us about the government. But in the case of subscription services, that's in our favor and makes a subscription service you sell to municipalities just about the "stickiest money" you can imagine.

Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) Tyler Tech ( TYL ) is the largest software company in the nation solely focused on providing integrated software and technology services to the public sector. Their mission-critical applications provide counties and municipalities with the ability to streamline and automate operations, resulting in improved productivity and reduced costs. Their professional services for local government clients include consulting, network design and management, installation, conversion, customization, training, and ongoing support.

Tyler is successfully building a fast-growing closed-based business inside a proven, profitable software license and maintenance business. Subscription revenues grew 39% in 2013.

Analysts have taken notice of Tyler's growth prospects as well. Recently, earnings estimates have been revised to the upside. The revisions have pushed consensus for the current year up from $1.63 to $1.73 per share. Next year's numbers have been revised in an even more bullish fashion, rising up from $1.89 to $2.16.

Tyler Tech has also built up a bit of a track record of beating estimates recently. Over the course of the previous four quarters, TYL has beat earnings three out of four times. Last quarter earnings came in at 45 cents, 4 cents above consensus estimates of 41 cents.

I've been watching this stock for a very long time, trading it for the first time in 2012. The end of 2013 was a very bullish time for TYL, running all the way up to an all-time high of $107.99. This year, however, has been a bit rocky. An earnings miss for Q4 2013 lead to the stock breaking below the century mark and trading all the way down to $74.37 in April 2014.

After the drop, TYL consolidated in a trading range below the $82 level until a breakout in June. From there the stock reached highs just shy of $100. The recent price action above the $87 handle carves out a new range and provides a clear cut level of support. Currently the stock trades just below the 40-day moving average. That average has a slope approaching zero right now, indicating a range bound stock. To profit from a range bound trade you need to buy TYL lost to $88, where it is today, with a stop near $87. This way you limit your downside risk on a stock that could potential initiate a new trend in either direction. Or, you could wait for a break of $92 to play the breakout on this one.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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