British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears, Yellen Speech in Focus Ahead -

Talking Points:

  • British Pound slumps vs. majors as latest polls revive "Brexit" jitters
  • Comments from Fed's Mester help US Dollar bounce after brutal drop
  • All eyes on Fed Chair Yellen following May's grim employment data

The British Pound underperformed in overnight trade after a new round of polls showed voters are warming up to the idea of the UK leaving the European Union ahead of a referendum on membership later this month. A YouGov poll returned a 45 versus 41 percent split in favor of "Brexit", while a separate TNS survey showed a 43 to 41 percent preference for leaving.

The US Dollar rose against all of its top counterparts in a move that appeared to be corrective after the currency suffered the largest drop in over two years on Friday. The selloff followed deeply disappointing set of labor-market figures that weighed against near-term rate hike speculation.

Supportive comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester over the weekend may have likewise helped the greenback. Mester said that while the jobs data was a disappointment, policymakers can't read too much into one number. She added that the report did not fundamentally alter her outlook, with the economy "definitely" moving in the right direction.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to scheduled commentary from Fed Chair Janet Yellen . Falling back on the central bank's commitment to "data dependency" is likely to be seen as dovish, weighing on the greenback . Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting the Fed intends to look past May's report as a one-off anomaly may offer a lifeline to the battered benchmark unit.

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Asia Session

1:00 AUD Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (MAY) -0.2% - 0.1%
1:00 AUD Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (MAY) 1.0% - 1.5%
1:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY) 2.4% - -0.6%

European Session

6:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (APR) -0.5% 1.9% Medium
6:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders (YoY) (APR) 0.6% 1.7% Medium
7:30 EUR Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAY) - 53.4 Low
8:00 GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY) - 2.0% Low
8:00 CHF Total Sight Deposits - 494.1b Low
8:00 CHF Domestic Sight Deposits - 420.7b Low
8:00 EUR ECB's Nowotny on Austrian Economic Outlook - - Medium
8:00 EUR ECB VP Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt - - Medium
8:10 EUR Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAY) - 51.0 Low
8:10 EUR Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAY) - 47.9 Low
8:10 EUR Markit France Retail PMI (MAY) - 48.2 Low
8:10 EUR Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAY) - 42.6 Low
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUN) 7.0 6.2 Low

Critical Levels

CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3
EUR/USD 1.0819 1.1056 1.1211 1.1293 1.1448 1.1530 1.1767
GBP/USD 1.4134 1.4317 1.4417 1.4500 1.4600 1.4683 1.4866

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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