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Brexit to set the European dominos falling

Europeans polled about Brexit say it will be contagious

There is one reason why most European heads are taking a strong line about how bad a UK exit will be for Britain, and that's to try to put off other European countries from going down the same route, and thus unravelling the European project like pulling a loose thread on a jumper.

That's a fruitless task by the looks of it as nearly half of European's polled by IPSOS think that that an exit would lead to a domino effect in other countries.

  • 48% think other countries would leave if UK votes out

  • Europeans thinks Brexit will harm the EU more than the UK

  • 4/10 see a reduced EU by 2020

  • 49% of those polled think UK will vote to leave. Of that, 60% of Italians, 58% of French & 42% of Germans think the UK will leave.

  • 45% say their own country should hold a referendum

  • 1/3 would vote to leave if given the choice

As we crawl towards the vote we should expect the noise from the EU to take a tougher tone about the effects to the UK on leaving. With Greece bubbling up again they'll want to avoid that being the first domino to fall if we vote to leave, though that may happen anyway if they don't get a deal done this month.

The latest Bloomberg poll tracker (as of 3rd May) has the leavers just out in front at 41% vs 40% to stay and 19% undecided.

Europe's view of Brexit

The latest odds still favour bets to remain at 1/3 vs 1/2 a couple of weeks ago. To leave is now just shy of 3/1 vs 2.1 prior.

I'm still not as confident in the result of voting to stay as I was in the general election or the Scottish vote as far too many people I would have expected to vote to stay are going to vote to leave.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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