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Brazil confirms that GDP forecasts are heading lower (EWZ, EEM)

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It is not a surprise to see the Brazilian government revise its official reading of economic growth downward, but be warned: this is part of a widening trend throughout emerging markets and the developed world alike.

Brazil now expects growth to come in at 3.8% this year, down from a previous estimate of 4.5%.

This is no surprise. Banks like Goldman Sachs were rolling back their targets back in August.

If anything, we could see a slight upside surprise here, since 3.8% is a bit above what Wall Street expects from Brazil this year.

It is a little ominous that Brazil is not expecting to grow much faster in 2012 -- at best, traders are looking to see GDP rise in the 3.6% to 3.8% range -- and that at this rate the country's expansion rate is below the global average.

The BRIC group is once again breaking down into winners -- China and Russia -- and losers.

Based on emergingmoney.com reader response, we know Brazil is not in the losing camp due to sentiment, but the macro picture could be better.

And with Brazil accounting for a full 15% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index -- right behind China at 16.82% -- any disappointment for the Bovespa ( EWZ , quote ) plays out in global portfolios like EEM ( quote ) as well:

Be careful out there.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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